外商直接投資行為的決定因素論文外文翻譯-中英論文對(duì)照翻譯

中文字本科畢業(yè)文外文翻譯外文題：BehaviouralDeterminantsOfforeignDirectInvestment出處：UniversityofBath作者：Pinheiro原文：BehavioralDeterminationOfDirectInvestmentPicardoPinheiroAlvesAbstractThepaperabehaviouraleconomicstoforeigndirectinvestment.StartingfrombehaviouralfinanceusescontentanalysisfrominterviewsmadetoPortuguesemanagerswithinvestmentsabroad.Thestudypresentsevidenceofherding,anchoring,overconfidence,mentalaccountingandotherbehaviourrulesinfirms’locationdecisionsthatoriginateasetofdeterminantsofflowscomplementtheneoclassicalparadigm.Moreover,itconfirmsthemodel(1983,1989)byshowingthathigheruncertaintybymakersthemorefrequentbethebehaviouralrules.Thecentralof

uncertaintyhelpsexplainFDIflowsoccurmorefrequentlyamongdevelopedcountries.1.IntroductionFDItheoryhasdevelopingonapartial-equilibriumbasisandempiricalanalysisisoftennotconclusiveindicatingthattheremanydeterminantsdecisionsandtheirvarieswithcontext(countries,firmsand–Blonigen,2005).Buttheoryseldomconsidersrolemanagerswithinthedecisionmakingprocess.Psychologistsrecognizethatmanagers,ashumanbeingsingeneral,haveseveralmotivationalfactorsareeitherintrinsictheirpersonalityshapedbytheirenvironmentmayhavemultipleandchangingobjectivesthatareoftencontradictory(FreyEichenberger,aresubjectchoiceschangethepersonalexperienceofindividuals.Thischangeinvaluesmodifiestheobjectivesthatattempttoattain(Akerlof,Giventhatmanagershavechecksonperformance(fromcompetition,shareholders,customersandemployees)domaketheirchoicesmorecarefullyifactedasindividuals.Butmanagersareimmuneculturalothersocialinfluencesusuallydisregardedeconomicliterature.Moreover,thebehaviouralliteraturehasshown(e.g.Shiller,2003)thatsimplerdecisionsinequity

marketsorportfolioinvestmentcannotbetotallyexplainedbyaneoclassicalapproach.therolemanagersseemssuitabletoprovideacomplementaryperspectivemainstreameconomics,andthusanenrichmentofFDItheory.TheaimofistoshowthatthebehaviouralapproachmakecontributiontoFDIbyidentifyinganewsetofdeterminants,similartothosepresentedinbehaviouralTheserulesbehaviourrepeatedlyfollowedbymanagersthatchooseexactlocationsinexternalmarketsThisapproachisbettersuitedthanwhatisusuallyassumedeconomicmodelsshowcomplexityoflocationdecisionsbecauseitgivesacentralroletotheuncertainty(riskofunknownsplusunknownbymanagers.ItthepurposeofthispapertodisplayuncertaintyinaccordancewiththerealityofFDIdecisions.Thatis,toenhancetheoffactorsthatgobeyondstandardassumptionsofneoclassicaltheoryandtoincludebehaviouralcharacteristicsaffectperceptionsofmanagerstheirdecisionmakingprocess.HenceitimportanttounderstandthedifferentperceptionsofmanagersandunderstandhowtheyimpactrealFDIlocationdecisions.ThefocusonuncertaintyisbasedHeiner(1983,1985,1989)modelofbehaviourprediction.Theuseofabehavioural

framework,basedon“behaviouralists(e.g.Simon)andoneconomicpsychologyTverskyandKahneman),allowsabetterunderstandingkeydeterminantsinFDIlocationdecisions.Thecentralideaofthemodelistheuncertaintyhighershouldbetheuseofbehaviouralrules.IttheoreticallyappliedtoFDIinHosseini(2005)andanempiricalconfirmation,usingdatafromPortugueseisinthepaper.Theworkisbasedoninterviewsandinterpretationofinformationthroughcontentanalysisasacomplementtotheenormousofquantitativeintheliterature.Thisisreinforcedbystatisticaltestsinorderassesstheresultsobtainedinthequalitativework.ThefollowingsectionbrieflyreviewsFDItheorybypointingtoitslimitswhilesectiondetailsmethodologyandsection4presentsempiricalevidenceofbehaviouralrules.Section5theofuncertaintybytestingHeinermodelthepaperendsabriefconclusion.2．LimitsFDItheoryConsiderafirmdecidingwhethertoinvestabroadandwherelocateitsinvestment.Arationaldecision-makerattemptstomaximizepresentvalueofthedifferencebetweenrevenueandcostsansweringthesequestions.Forthisitcollectsubstantialinformationandassumingadiscountratefromthe

expectedinflation,thedesiredrateofreturnandthepresumedassociatedrisk,itcancalculateanetpresentvaluefortheinvestment.Thedecisiontoinvestabroadandwheretolocateinvestmentdependsonthedecision-’sexpectationsaboutthevalueofthesevariablesthevariousavailablealternatives.Ifdecisiontogoabroadisalreadymade,locationofinvestment,itsexpectedrevenueandcosts,becomestherelevantissue.Thus,oneconsiderthattwokeyvariablesrationallocationdecisionsarerevenueandcosts.EconomicliteraturehaspresentedseveralexplanationsimpactingrevenueandcostsforFDItooccur2.Transnationalcompanies(TNC’s),whenmakingFDIlocationdecisionswithinimperfectmarkets,seekimprovetheirrevenuestreaminseveralways.Theyusespecificadvantagesoverlocalcompetitorsthemarkettocompensatetheadditionalcostsofinvestingabroad.Severalspecificarenoted:productdifferentiation,managerialandmarketingskills,innovationThewillminimizetransactionalcostsandthustobemorecost-efficientisalsousedbytheliteraturetoexplainlocationdecisions.ThetransactionalcostsapproachexplainsoccurrenceofFDI(butnotexactlocation)fromacostcomparisonbetweenmarkettransactionsandtheinternalallocationofresources.Penrose(1958)andWilliamson(1975,1981)

statethebiggerandmorecomplextheorbetterandcheaperthelegalframeworkexistinginformationchannels,thelowerthepotentialadvantagesofinternalization(bothdomesticandinternational)andthehighertheincentivetooperatewithinmarket.BuckleyCasson,HennartCaves(1996)furtherdevelopedapproachstatingtheresultingofmarketimperfections(originatingless-tradablegoodssuchas“researchanddevelopment”,knowledgeorintangibleassetssuchasbrands)areanincentiveinternalizationandtheofTNCexplanationsofdecisionsaremainlyrelatedwiththefragmentationofproductionprocessesbysingle-plantfirmsdifferentstagesbasedondifferentrelativefactorendowmentsthuspricesacrosscountries(thefactorproportionmodel,HelpmanandKrugman,1985).Inthiscase,verticalisunidirectionalrichlyendowedcountriestocheaperlabourendoweddecisionsahugeamountofinformation,comprisedifferentstepswherealargenumberofsmallsequentialdecisionsmadeduringseveralyears,andinvestedcapitalrelativelyimmobilefocusedonthelongterm(Aharoni,1999).Inthemeantimeenvironmentalvariablesarepermanentlychanginginunpredictablewaysdecisionmakersarethemselvesaffectedbyratherdifferentevents.Theprocess

involvesalotdifferentpeoplethat,directlyorindirectly,influencethefinallocation.Furthermore,eachFDIlocationdecisioncomprisesnotonly“economically”partalsothe“behavioural”part,whereperceptionsandothercognitivefeaturesofmanagersareincluded(Katona,1975).Therefore,amorecompletedefinitionofFDIlocationdecisions,oneprovidedthebehaviouralapproach,mustalsoconsiderwaybehaviouralinfluencesaFDIlocationdecisionbyrecognizingtherelevanceofmanagers’cognitivecharacteristicswithinthedecision-makingprocess.Moreover,afeatureofmostdecisionmakingsituationsistheexistenceuncertaintyorabsenceofabilitydecipherallofthecomplexityofenvironment;onewhosestructureitselfevolvesoverti”(Heiner,1983,p,569).Itincludes,besidesrisk,theknownunknownsandunknownunknowns.Contrarytorisk,theremainingpartofuncertaintycannotbemitigateditisnotpossibletoassignprobabilitiesforeachalternative(Knight,1921).However,behaviourtypesofagentsisthoughttohighlyinfluenceduncertaintywhileneoclassicaleconomicsusuallyplaydownoutcomestowhichtheyarenotabletoassignaprobabilitythebehaviouralapproachemphasizesThatis,itdiffersexpectedutilitytheory

whereanduncertaintyareoftenfacedasbeingthesamethingwhileactingasconstrainttomaximization(Hirshleiferand1992,p.10).Thebehaviouralapproachconsidershowuncertaintyandtheextrinsicandintrinsiccognitivecharacteristicsofmanagersinfluencedecision-makingfullyconsidersFDIdecisionmakingprocessbygivinguncertaintyacentralroleeachstep.Thisisveryimportantthreereasons:First,emphasisonrulesofbehaviourinthispaperarisesthethatmostsituationsfacedbydecisionmakersarerelated“nonreplicableuncertaintyevenignorance”(Heijdra,1988,p.83);Secondbecauseindividualsusuallydealwitheacheventinseparatewaybeforecombiningtheoutcomesandthusuncertaintyisincreased3(KahnemanandTversky,1979).ThisapplicabletoeachdifferentstepinFDIdecisionswheredifferentpersonsparticipate;Third,asAlchian(1950)proposes,becauseseemsmoresensibletodevelopmodelfromaninitialsituationofuncertaintyandaddelementsforesight,tostartitonagoalasmaximizationandafterwardsabandonitconsideringuncertaintydifferentmotivesage’thebehaviouralapproachhighlightsuncertaintyanevolvingphenomenonbyonthecognitivecharacteristicsofindividualsaskeytothedecision-making

processand,thus,asthebasisofthechangingexpectationsconsideredneoclassicalThatis,problemsfacedbydecisionmakerschangewithuncertainty.Itiswithinthiscomplexitythatbehaviouralrulesarise.Behaviouralrulesorheuristicssimplifyingtoreducecomplexitysystematicallydeviatefrompredictionsofunboundedproceduralrationalityandareuncertainty(FreyandEichenberger,2001).behaviouralperspectiveconsidersthatmanagers,likeanyindividual,whenfacinguncertaintyaresubjecttoerrorsand“anomalous”behaviourdecisionmaking.Bothcorrected.Butwhileerrorsmaybeaonetimedeviationfromeconomicrationalitythelimitedcapabilitiesofbeings,heuristicssequentialdeviations,whereintuitionhasaroleandownrationality,andrepresentedbysystematicandpredictablebiasesarisingfrombehaviouralrules.Inadynamicperspective,whenagentsareabletocorrectbehaviourenvironmentinsignificantwayand,becauseachangingcontextimpactstheperceptionsofmanagers,agentshavetopermanentlyre-starttheirpersonallearningprocesscopewiththenewenvironmentalconditions.Therefore,behaviouralaimstoidentifytherelevantdurabpatternsoffirms’behaviour.Allheuristicsthatare

recurrentpersistduringcertainperiodoftimebecausetheyareimmediatelythroughlearningorincentivestolimitsofthehumanbeingconsideredasbehaviouralrules(Heiner,1983,1989;Arrow,1996).Thisincludeslocationdecisionsnotconsistentstrategyandothersarealsoinconsistentwithoptimization.Inthefirstcaseconsistentdecisionsoperationstowithinbroaderstrategyofthefirm.Iftheyarenotandarekeptthroughouttheyearsabehaviouralruleinconsistentwithrationalityisobserved.Generallyspeaking,behaviouralrulesusualchoicestypifiedinaccordancetheirintimespan,thatrelatedwithpresenteventsconcerningexpectationsaboutfuturedevelopments,andbyintrinsicorextrinsiccognitiveorigin.Abetterunderstandingofeachdecisionmakingprocessmaybebyusing(1983,1985,1989)model,wheretherelativerigidityfacedbydecision-makersisemphasizedandtheusualoptimizationassumptionsoftheneoclassicalliteraturedisregarded.Thebehaviouralwillinputspsychology,calledheuristicsdecisionmakingintheuncertainty.

本科畢業(yè)文外文翻譯譯文：外商直接資行為的決因素摘要本文從行為金融理論出發(fā)，結(jié)合國(guó)外投資經(jīng)理的訪談內(nèi)容分析介紹了外國(guó)直接投資行為的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究。本研究提出了過(guò)度自信及其他行為規(guī)則心里的證據(jù)。公司的選址是決定外國(guó)直接投資流量設(shè)置的一個(gè)要素和補(bǔ)充新古典主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的典范。此外，它證實(shí)了海納模型，該模型（年1985年1989年）表明使用使用更頻繁的使用準(zhǔn)則將面臨更大的不確定性。不確定性的核心作用在于有助于解釋為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家之間頻繁的外國(guó)直接投資行為。一、引言對(duì)外直接投資理論一直在制訂一個(gè)局部均衡基礎(chǔ)，實(shí)證分析表明許多背景因素如國(guó)家、企業(yè)往往不是決定性的。但是理論認(rèn)為，在決策過(guò)程中管理者作用很少心理學(xué)家認(rèn)識(shí)到，管理人員作為一般人目標(biāo)并不是固有的，其可能有多種和不斷變化的目標(biāo)。他們自己的個(gè)性塑造可能由與個(gè)人的親身經(jīng)歷的變化或者激勵(lì)因素和環(huán)境同作用的。由于管理對(duì)他們的性能檢查（從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，股東，客戶和員工），如果他們不是作為個(gè)人行事，他們往往能更仔細(xì)地作出選擇。然而，經(jīng)理們也不能幸免于德，文化和其他社會(huì)因素的影響，而這些通常是被經(jīng)濟(jì)文獻(xiàn)所忽視。此外，行為金融學(xué)的文獻(xiàn)顯示在股票市場(chǎng)或有價(jià)證券投資中簡(jiǎn)單的決策不能完全由新古典主義方法所解釋。因此，管理者的作用似乎能補(bǔ)充提供主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)沒(méi)有考慮的情況，從而豐富對(duì)外直接投資理論。本文目的是要

表明，該行為方法可以通過(guò)確定一套類似行為金融學(xué)的新的決定因素，提出一個(gè)對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資有貢獻(xiàn)的理論。管理人員行為規(guī)則一再驅(qū)使企業(yè)選擇國(guó)外市場(chǎng)的正確位置，這種方法更適合在假定的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型顯示況下。由于外國(guó)直接投資選址決定的復(fù)雜性，管理人員面臨的將是巨大的不確定，因?yàn)樗o出了一個(gè)核心作用的不確定性（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，作為未知）。因此，重要的是要了解管理人員的不同認(rèn)識(shí)和了解它們?nèi)绾斡绊懍F(xiàn)實(shí)生活中的決策。海納（1983年1985年1989年）的行為預(yù)測(cè)模型是在一個(gè)行為的框架內(nèi)使用，該模型的中心思想是不確定性因素在對(duì)對(duì)外直接投資的作用。從理論上適用于外國(guó)直接投資，這在在侯賽尼（）實(shí)證中得到確認(rèn)。以下部分簡(jiǎn)要地回顧了他的局限性，而第條給出了詳細(xì)的方法，第提出行為規(guī)則對(duì)外直接投理論的實(shí)證分析，第中不確性通過(guò)測(cè)試海納模型和處理完的文件的作用做一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)短的結(jié)論。二、對(duì)外直接投資的限制考慮一個(gè)企業(yè)決定是否投資海外以及在哪里找到它的投資。

一個(gè)理性的決策者試圖最大限度地提高收入與成本差異時(shí)，回答這些問(wèn)題的現(xiàn)值。對(duì)于為此目的，必須收集假設(shè)從預(yù)期通脹，預(yù)期回報(bào)率和推定相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的折現(xiàn)率和大量信息，它可以計(jì)算的投資凈現(xiàn)值。到海投資的決定，并在那里找到投資取決于對(duì)這些變量的各種可用的替代品價(jià)值決策者的期望。如果決出國(guó)已經(jīng)作出的投資地點(diǎn)，其預(yù)期收入和成本，成為相關(guān)的問(wèn)題。因此可以認(rèn)為，這兩個(gè)位的合理決策的關(guān)鍵變量是入和成本。經(jīng)濟(jì)獻(xiàn)已提出影響收入和外國(guó)直接投資的成本公司（跨國(guó)公司）的，不完善的市場(chǎng)內(nèi)時(shí)FDI位決策幾種解釋，爭(zhēng)取在幾個(gè)方面提高

自己的收入來(lái)源。他們利用在東道國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的獨(dú)特優(yōu)勢(shì)來(lái)彌補(bǔ)國(guó)外投資的額外費(fèi)用。幾個(gè)具體的優(yōu)點(diǎn)是指出：產(chǎn)品差異化，管理和營(yíng)銷技能，創(chuàng)新和意志，以減少交易成本，從而更具成本效益也是由外國(guó)直接