中國煙草經(jīng)濟(jì)分析---復(fù)旦大學(xué)精品課程.ppt

1、2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,1,Analysis on Chinese Tobacco Economy,mid-term review coping strategy specific measures feasibility analysis,Tobacco consumption on the actual impact of the national economy,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,2,2010-5-313,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,3,The impact of tobacco consumption,Expand the income gap Increase th

2、e economic losses Medical costs Human Capital Total economy Do harm to peoples health and public health,Conclusion,The effect of tobacco industry on the national economy is negative, the more prospers of the tobacco industry , the more damage will be done to the national economy.,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,4

3、,coping strategy-configuration tobacco,The reform direction:,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,5,coping strategy-configuration tobacco,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,6,Discussion,The cost of controlbenifit analysis The tobacco tax analysis,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,7,The cost of controlbenifit analysis,The cost of control reduce econom

4、ic costs、increase opportunity cost Reduce cigarette sales VS Slash jobs? increase the price of cigarettes VS increase smuggled cigarettes? The benefit of control Economic performance over the economic costs significantly fire danger 、occupational hazard、 health insurance,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,8,Increase

5、 tobacco tax analysis,Demand reduction of tobacco Tobacco consumption reduction of social harm Increase the quota of tax,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,9,Ban smuggled cigarettes!,Demand reduction of tobacco,一包煙提價(jià)10%預(yù)計(jì)平均可使香煙需求量在高收入國家減少約4% ,而在中低收入國家可減少約8% ,因?yàn)檩^低的收入往往使人們對價(jià)格變化更加敏感1。 兒童和青少年比年長的成人對提價(jià)更加敏感,因此這一干預(yù)措施將對他們產(chǎn)生

6、重大影響2。,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,10,1Buck,David, C. Godfrey,M. Raw, andM. Sutton. 1995. Tobacco and Jobs. York, U. K. : Society for the Study of Ad diction and the Centre for Health Economics,University of York.,2 Chaloupka, F. J. , and H. wechsler. 1997. “Price, Tobacco Control Policies and SmokingAmong Yo

7、ung Adults. ”Journal of Health Economics 16 (3) : 359 - 73.,Feasibility analysis,The effect of ban smoking indoor The effect of ban teenager smoking Ban cigarette advertising and promotional activities The effect of the advertisement against tobacco consumption Increase the effect of tobacco tax,202

8、0/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,11,1.1The effect of ban smoking indoor,二手煙患者自主選擇權(quán)回歸 室內(nèi)吸煙率及吸煙量大幅降低 建議：望出臺(tái)相關(guān)法律文件加以支撐，不具法律強(qiáng)制性的公共場所及室內(nèi)禁煙條例無法有效約束煙民！,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,12,1.2The effect of ban teenager smoking,限制了青少年對香煙的可及性，增加了吸煙的成本，控制了吸煙人數(shù)。 關(guān)于禁止青少年吸煙效果的研究表明: 只有這些措施及相關(guān)的法律、法規(guī)被全面、徹底地執(zhí)行時(shí), 才能取得顯著的效果。 建議：加大執(zhí)法力度（監(jiān)管、行政處罰）,2020/8/

9、11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,13,1.3 Ban cigarette advertising VS Advertisement against tobacco,全面禁止煙草廣告可以有效地降低煙草的消費(fèi) 反煙廣告利用媒體提高大眾對吸煙危害的認(rèn)知, 也可以明顯地降低煙草消費(fèi)。 建議：內(nèi)外一致！,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,14,1.3 Ban cigarette advertising VS Advertisement against tobacco,Saffer 和Chaloupa 的研究表明增加15% 的反煙廣告時(shí)間可以使煙草的消費(fèi)量降低約4%。一些區(qū)域性的反煙廣告的效果分析如美國的Cali

10、fornia、Massachusetts 以及芬蘭、希臘、英國、挪威、以色列、奧地利、加拿大等國的研究均表明反煙廣告可以降低煙草消費(fèi)3。 3Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in Develop ing Countries. Oxford Press.,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,15,1.4Increase the effect of tobacco tax,中國(包括臺(tái)灣)、土耳其、巴布亞新幾內(nèi)亞、以及南非的研究表明: 中低收入國家的香煙的需求對價(jià)格的敏感性要高于發(fā)達(dá)國家, 需求彈

11、性的值大都集中于-0.5-1.0之間45。 發(fā)達(dá)國家對香煙的需求彈性的研究比較多, 美國、加拿大、澳大利亞、日本、英國以及許多西歐國家的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達(dá)國家的香煙的需求彈性的值集中于一個(gè)較窄的范圍內(nèi), 并且大都集中于-0.25 -0.5 之間3,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,16,3Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in Develop ing Countries. Oxford Press.,4毛正中, 蔣家林1“卷煙需求及其影響因素:一個(gè)斷面資料模型”J. 中國衛(wèi)生事業(yè)管理, 1997;

12、 5: 2272229. 5毛正中, 蔣家林等1“卷煙需求與價(jià)格政策”J. 中國衛(wèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì), 1997; 6: 50 52.,a illusion ?,the substitutes of tobcco the perspective of tobcco,2020/8/11,中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管,17,參考文獻(xiàn),1 Buck,David, C. Godfrey,M. Raw, andM. Sutton. 1995. Tobacco and Jobs. York, U. K. : Society for the Study of Ad diction and the Centre for Health Economics,University of York. 2 Chaloupka, F. J. , and H. wechsler. 1997. “Price, Tobacco Control Policies and SmokingAmong Young Adults. ”Journal of Health Economics 16 (3) : 359 - 73. 3Henry Saffer: Tobacco advertising and p romo tion. Tobacco Contro l in Develop ing Countries. Oxford Press. 4毛正中