中國(guó)汽車(chē)零部件行業(yè)：特斯拉供應(yīng)鏈評(píng)估

1、Equity Research Asia Pacific | ChinaChina Auto Parts SectorValuing the Tesla supply chainAuto Parts & Equipment | Supply Chain ResearchConnections SeriesFigure 1: Increasing content per vehicle and higher revenue from Tesla160001400012000100005000061%50000 50000Rmb548000 85008000768015%6000400056709

2、%2000 20000.2%1% 1% 0.3%3%1%3%4%0%2000019801180300014002004003503500%2% 6%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%The Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.Research AnalystsNic

3、k Li852 2101 6704 HYPERLINK mailto:nick.li.3 nick.li.3Bin WangXusheng Huayu Joyson Fuyao Sanhua Hongfa LensCATL2019 2022Xusheng Huayu Joyson Fuyao Sanhua Hongfa LensCATL2019 2022852 2101 6702 HYPERLINK mailto:bin.wang bin.wangSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Summary. Tesla has become th

4、e largest automaker in terms of market cap. Investors appreciate Teslas technology leadership on electrification and autonomous driving. After the CS US auto team recently provided an update on Tesla, in this Connection Series report, the CS China auto team, together with the CS China Industrial tea

5、m, CS China Tech team, and CS China Material team, provide a deep-dive analysis of business upsides for Chinese suppliers of Tesla, who are expected to benefit from Teslas 116% 2020-22 sales CAGR in China. Teslas China sales volume to enjoy 116% CAGR in 2020-22E. Teslas global sales volume enjoyed 6

6、3% volume CAGR in the past five years, and is estimated to achieve 38% CAGR in 2020-22. In particular, we think Teslas expansion in China is the key driver of its future growth. We forecast Teslas China sales volume to increase at 116% CAGR in 2020-22, from 45k units in 2019 to 455k in 2022 when Chi

7、na would account for 47% of Teslas global sales volume. Tesla could achieve an exponential growth in China as it is riding on three auto industry mega trendselectrification, automation, and premiumisation. Chinese local suppliers ride on Teslas rising parts localisation ratio. We see a golden opport

8、unity for Chinese auto parts suppliers who supply to Tesla, because of the expected exponential growth ahead. The domestically produced Tesla Model 3 components localisation rate was only 30% as of 2019, which is planned to increase to 80% by end- 2020. This will provide business upside for its Chin

9、ese suppliers. The upcoming Model Y SUVs localisation in 1Q21 will also bring more opportunities for China parts suppliers. Stock preference: based on content. We prefer auto suppliers with higher content per vehicle, especially those with upside for the upcoming Model Y and Gigafactory Berlin. We i

10、nitiate coverage on Xusheng Auto with an OUTPERFORM rating, and upgrade Huayu to OUTPERFORM (from Neutral). We maintain OUTPERFORM on LG Chem, Hongfa, and Lens Tech. We have a NEUTRAL rating on Sanhua, and UNDERPERFORM on CATL. Our pecking order: Xusheng Huayu LG Chem Lens Tech Hongfa Sanhua Shansha

11、n CATL. Key catalyst is Tesla Battery Day on 22-Sep.Dan Levy212 325 4617 HYPERLINK mailto:dan.levy dan.levyCarrie Jiang852 2101 6723 HYPERLINK mailto:carrie.jiang carrie.jiangKyna Wong852 2101 6950 HYPERLINK mailto:kyna.wong kyna.wongZhao Zhang852 2101 6915 HYPERLINK mailto:zhao.zhang zhao.zhangPete

12、r Li852 2101 6320 HYPERLINK mailto:peter.li peter.liDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in it

13、s research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that couldFocus charts and tableUnit455,000116% CAGR299,000230,000130,000129,500220,00045,374125,000165,000Figure 2: Tesla China sales volumeFigure 3: Tesla global sales volume500,000450,000400,0

14、00350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000011,83914,88316,75033,90320162017201820192020e2021e2022eModel 3 Model YModel SModel X2,000,0001,800,0001,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Unit1,812,65930% CAGR1,562,5591,252,459950,000967,259800,000752,059625,000367,6564

15、90,38795,300475,000300,000245,5060146,0550750,00076,285 103,181300,885 347,243 400,000 425,000525,000 650,0000 1,7064 2016201720182019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025eRoadster Model 3 Model Y Model S Cybertruck Model XSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Thinkercar,

16、Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 4: Revenue contribution from Tesla in 2019/2022Figure 5: Estimated content per vehicle in Model 3/Y in China 70%60%50%40%30%20%10%1600014000120001000050000Rmb50000 500008000 85008000768060005670400020000198011802000 20003000140020040035035061%54%15%0.2%3%1%1%1%0.3%3%6%9

17、%0%2%4%0%0%Xusheng HuayuJoysonFuyaoSanhuaHongfaLensCATL2019 2022Xusheng HuayuJoysonFuyaoSanhua HongfaLensCATL2019 2022Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 6: Valuation comparison of Tesla and Tesla-supply-chain companiesCompany NameRatingCS

18、upside Target price TickerP/E (x)P/B (x)ROE (%)Content per vehicle Revenue contribution Companys share in Tesla (Rmb)CSReuters202120222021202220212022from Tesla2022in Tesla ChinaTeslaNEUTRAL-9%400.0TSLA.OQ96.766.018.614.224%27.1%Ningbo Xusheng AutoOUTPERFORM32%48.7603305.SS34.930.44.94.215%14.9%1,80

19、061%100%Huayu AutoOUTPERFORM24%33.7600741.SS12.912.11.51.412%12.2%8,5002%100%LG ChemOUTPERFORM34%920,000.0051910.KS20.716.92.42.112%13.3%52,5009%60%HongfaOUTPERFORM22%57.0600885.SS31.925.35.54.718%20.0%7,6809%100%Lens TechnologyOUTPERFORM28%42.4300433.SZ24.919.44.53.720%21.0%3502%90%Sanhua Intellige

20、nt Controls NEUTRAL14%24.0002050.SZ35.528.16.55.620%21.4%3,00015%100%Joyson ElectronicNEUTRAL1%22.2600699.SS23.318.02.01.89%10.8%2,0001%100%Fuyao GlassUNDERPERFORM -28%23.8600660.SS25.222.93.63.415%15.2%4001%50%CATLUNDERPERFORM -79%41.0300750.SZ86.873.96.76.28%8.7%50,0004%40%Simple avg.35.529.24.53.

21、914.5%15.8%Market cap weighted avg.48.941.24.94.412.4%13.4%Note: Priced as of 16 September 2020. Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimatesValuing the Tesla supply chainTesla has become the largest automaker in terms of market cap, with its share price rising 428% YTD. Investors appreciate Teslas te

22、chnology leadership on both electrification and autonomous driving. Moreover, the Shanghai Gigafactory launch in China and the expected Berlin Gigafactory in Germany will fuel its future growth. With its local production of model 3/model Y in China, Tesla targets to increase the supply chain localis

23、ation ratio from 30% as of 2019 to 80% by year-end 2020 to leverage the economies of scale and relatively low cost advantage in China. In this Connection Series report, the CS China Auto team, together with the CS China Industrial team, CS China Tech team, and CS China Material team provide a summar

24、y of Teslas China suppliers and analyse the potential business upside for Chinese suppliers of Tesla, who are expected to benefit from its 116% sales volume CAGR in China.Tesla: key luxury player in China at smart EV stageTeslas global sales volume enjoyed 63% volume CAGR in the past five years, and

25、 is estimated to achieve 38% CAGR in 2020-22. In particular, we believe the expansion of Tesla in China is the key driver of its future growth. We forecast Teslas China sales volume to increase 116% CAGR in 2020-22 from 45k units in 2019 to 455k in 2022, when China would account for 47% of Teslas gl

26、obal sales volume. Tesla could achieve exponential growth in China because it is riding on three auto industry mega trends of electrification, automation, and premiumisation.China auto parts suppliers to rise with TeslaWe see a golden opportunity for Chinese auto parts names which supply to Tesla, b

27、ecause of the expected exponential growth ahead. The localisation rate of the domestically produced Tesla Model 3 components was 30% as of 2019, which is planned to increase to 80% by end-2020 in order to support Tesla Model 3s price competitiveness. This will provide a large business upside for its

28、 China-based suppliers. Meanwhile, the upcoming Model Y SUVs China localisation in 1Q21 will bring more opportunity for China auto parts suppliers, as Tesla also guided its Model Y sales are expected to be higher than Model 3 sales in China. We believe the Model Y launch in China will be a key catal

29、yst for Teslas Chinese suppliers.Stock calls: Prefer suppliers with higher content per vehicle and higher exposure to TeslaBased on the content per vehicle and also the revenue contribution upside from Tesla, we prefer auto suppliers with higher content per vehicle, especially those with higher cont

30、ent upside for the upcoming Tesla Model Y and Gigafactory Berlin. We initiate coverage of Xusheng Auto (603305.SS) with an OUTPERFORM rating, thanks to the companys close relationship with Tesla since 2013, and increasing revenue contribution from Tesla from 54% in 2019 to likely 61% in 2022. The co

31、mpany has expanded its product portfolio from die-casting parts to forging and extrusion parts, which will be equipped in Tesla Model Y. We upgrade Huayu to OUTPERFORM (from Neutral) thanks to its high content per vehicle in Tesla and attractive valuation. On the other hand, we have OUTPERFORMs on L

32、G Chem, Hongfa, and Lens Technology, as we believe these players could directly benefit from rising Tesla sales volume and rising content per vehicle trend over 2020-22. We have a NEUTRAL rating on Sanhua Intelligent Control, mainly because of its unattractive valuation. Sanhuas content per vehicle

33、supply to Tesla will increase when launching Model Y due to a more complicated and integrated heat-management system. We have an UNDERPERFORM rating on CATL, mainly because we expect its battery volume increase in Tesla will be offset by the decline from other customers, e.g., BAIC and Yutong. On th

34、e other hand, we are still concerned about the battery pricing drop squeezing margins. Thus, we maintain UNDERPERFORM on Shanshan. We regard the upcoming Tesla Battery Day as a key event catalyst ahead, which will boost sentiment in non- battery suppliers, as Tesla may launch its own high-tech batte

35、ry supply programme. Our pecking order is Xusheng Huayu LG Chem Hongfa Lens Tech Sanhua Shanshan CATL.Investors appreciate Teslas technology leadership on both electrification and autonomous driving.Tesla could achieve an exponential growth in China because it is riding on three auto industry mega t

36、rends of electrification, automation and premiumisation.We see a golden opportunity for Chinese auto parts names which supply to Tesla because of exponential growth ahead.Our pecking order is Xusheng Huayu LG Chem Lens Tech Hongfa Sanhua Shanshan CATL.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Focus

37、charts and table 2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Valuing the Tesla supply chain 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Tesla: key luxury player in China at smart EV stage 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 China auto parts suppliers to rise with Tesla 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Stock calls: Prefer suppliers with higher content

38、per vehicle and higher exposure to Tesla 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Tesla: Key luxury player in China at smart EV stage 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Electrification in China: a high-growth market with large potential 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Automation in China: an acceleration process towards driverle

39、ss cars 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Premiumisation in China: on the back of rising income and upgraded replacement 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 China auto parts suppliers to rise with Tesla 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Parts localisation rate to improve from 30% as of 2019 to 80% by end-2020E 15 HYPERLINK

40、 l _TOC_250011 Upcoming Tesla Model Y launch in China to boost volume and act as a key catalyst 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Stock calls: Prefer suppliers with higher content per vehicle and higher exposure in Tesla 21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 HOLT View on Tesla China auto parts sector 25 HYPERLINK l _

41、TOC_250008 Tesla Inc 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co. Ltd 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM rating 30Increasing client base and expanding product portfolio to empower future growth beyond .32 Earnings to enjoy 38% CAGR in 2020-22E 34 HYPERLINK

42、l _TOC_250005 Valuation and risks 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Company background 40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Huayu Automotive Systems Co., Ltd 42LG Chem Ltd. 44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Lens Technology 46Hongfa Technology 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls 50Ningbo Shanshan

43、 52 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited 54Tesla: Key luxury player in China at smart EV stageTeslas global sales volume enjoyed 63% volume CAGR in the past five years, and is estimated to achieve 38% CAGR in 2020-22. In particular, we believe the expansion of Tesla i

44、n China is the key driver of its future growth. We forecast Teslas China sales volume to increase 116% CAGR in 2020-22 from 45k units in 2019 to 455k in 2022, when China would account for 47% of Teslas global sales volume. Tesla could achieve exponential growth in China because it is riding on three

45、 auto industry mega trends of electrification, automation and premiumisation.Figure 7: Teslamainland China sales volumeFigure 8: Teslaglobal sales volume500,000450,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000Unit455,000116% CAGR299,000129,50045,37411,83914,88316,75033,903125,000165,00

46、0220,000130,000230,00020162017201820192020e2021e2022eModel 3 Model YModel SModel X2,000,0001,800,0001,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Unit1,812,65930% CAGR1,562,5591,252,459950,000967,259800,000752,059625,000490,38795,300475,000300,000367,656245,5060146,055750,000076,2

47、85 103,181300,885 347,243 400,000 425,000525,000 650,0000 1,7064 2016201720182019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025eRoadster Model 3 Model Y Model S Cybertruck Model XSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Thinkercar, Credit Suisse estimatesIn order to lead the trend of

48、electrification and automation, Tesla spent a large amount of money in R&D and gradually achieved leadership in intelligent incorporated EV technology. It provides car owners a differentiated autonomous driving experience by using its unique OTA (over-the- air) technology and FSD (full self-driving)

49、 chip, more importantly, its proprietary algorithm. Tesla has turned out to be the largest beneficiary of the two global mega trends of electrification and automation, and has exceeded Toyota in 2020 to be the worlds most valuable automaker in terms of market capitalisation.Tesla is strategically po

50、sitioned in the high-end EV market and has successfully established its premium brand image in both China and overseas. Tesla premium brand position helps it to ride another mega-trend in the China auto marketpremiumisation, which was brought out by the booming economy of China and increasing income

51、s of the Chinese citizens.Electrification in China: a high-growth market with large potentialChinas new energy vehicle (NEV) market was the largest globally, with a dominant position at 54% market share in 2019. Chinas NEV passenger vehicle sales volume was 1.045 mn units in 2019, followed by the US

52、 (320k units), Germany (107k units), and Norway (80k units). We estimate Chinas NEV sales volume to grow at a CAGR of 25% over 2020-25, reaching 4.5 mn units in 2025, when NEVs are expected to achieve a penetration rate of 16% (NEV volume as % of overall auto sales). Specifically, we expect pure-ele

53、ctric vehicles selling price to decline to a similar level as ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles in 2023, which is estimated to trigger 93% YoY NEV volume jump in 2023. The China NEV market is driven by: (1) strong government support; (2) notable unserved demand due to car plate restrictions;

54、 (3) rapidly growing charging infrastructure and Chinese “NEV credits” regime; and (4) declining battery prices and NEV ownership cost.Figure 9: Global Top 10 largest NEV markets in 2019Figure 10: China new energy vehicle (NEV) sales outlook5.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0201720182019 2020e 2021e 2

55、022e 2023e 2024e 2025eChina NEV sales volumeYoY100%unit mn93%4.53.553%62%2.730%1.31.21.21.31.429%0.8-4%0%8%8%80%60%40%20%0%-20%Source: Thinkercar, CEIC, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Thinkercar, Credit Suisse estimatesStrong government support for a strategically important sectorThe auto industry h

56、as been recognised as a strategically important industry for China. It is a significant contributor to Chinas GDP (4%), employment (4.7 mn workers), taxation (10%) and national retail sales (25%). In the traditional ICE auto market, Chinese players have lagged their global leading peers in terms of

57、technology, i.e., powertrain. The NEV market is expected to create a level playing field and allow Chinese NEV companies to play a greater role. Meanwhile, both the Chinese central and local governments are pushing for the adoption of NEVs with strong policy support, owing to worsening air pollution

58、 as well as a focus on petroleum resource independence. Imported crude oil exposure continued to increase, hitting 71% in 2019.Figure 11: Auto industry is critical to Chinas economyFigure 12: Imported crude oil as % total consumption4% of GDP contribution10% of taxationTAX 10% of totalEmployment9.6%

59、 of national retail valueSource: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: CEICNotable unserved demand due to car plate restrictionsDue to severe traffic congestion and air pollution, certain areas (including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Hainan province) controlled ICE v

60、ehicle purchases by restricting annual car plate numbers. The probability of obtaining car plates in these areas is very low. The total number of car plate applicants from those areas reached 7 mn by end-2019, representing a huge unmet demand for car ownership. These people could be prospective NEV