羅蘭貝格公司的旅游研究方案-英文版(ppt 106頁(yè)).ppt

1、U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM OUTLOOK AND TRENDS Research, Idea Sale of Park Passes up 8% See Americas National Parks partnership with TIA, National Park Service and National Park Foundation,Travel Policies Air Business Travelers 2004 and 2002,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Bu

2、siness Travel Association,Percent of Air Business Travelers,Alternative Technologies Used By Business Travelers in Past Year, 2004,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel Association,Percent of Business Travelers,Effectiveness and Efficiency of Technology to Repla

3、ce Travel, 2004 and 2002,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel Association,Percent of Air Business Travelers Top Two Boxes,AUTO TRAVEL PERFORMANCE,U.S. auto travel up 2% through September 2004 Still holding up due to: Shifts from air, especially for short-distan

4、ce trips Closer-to-home travel Increasing interest in family travel Increased interest in RVs,Airline Turbulence,Domestic air travel up 5% over 2003, but still 10% below 2000. International is up 14% over 2003, but better yet, up 5% over 2000. Exchange rates make U.S. even more of a bargain US Air,

5、United and ATA in bankruptcy Airline losses $8 billion in 2004; $23 billion between 2001 - 2003,U.S. Hotel Performance Strengthens In 2004,Source: Smith Travel Research,% Change over Prior Year,Changes to Domestic Advertising and Marketing Programs,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Amon

6、g 90% of Members with Domestic Marketing Programs,Where are We Going?,Americans Economic Assessments Are Mixed,41% now rate economic conditions as positive, up slightly 48% say economy getting better vs. 42% who say it is getting worse Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important problem f

7、acing America now 30% vs. 38% - 40% in autumn of 2004 Only 33% says its a good time to “find a quality job”, vs. 62% who say its a bad time,Source: Gallup Surveys,U.S. Leisure Outlook,Leisure travel intentions remain strong Trends of the last few years will continue but some return to more normal pa

8、tterns Growth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in other activities too Spending up 4% in 2004 over 2003,Domestic Leisure Travel Will Continue to Grow Slowly,Million of Person-Trips,Source: Travel Industry Association of A

9、merica,Domestic Business Travel Will Rise but Still Below 2000 Levels,Millions of Person-Trips,Source: TIA and Global Insight,Note: Does not include combined business/leisure travel,U.S. Hotel Performance Expected to Remain Healthy in 2005,Source: Smith Travel Research,% Change over Prior Year,Forec

10、asts for Growth in U.S. Domestic Travel, 2005,Total Domestic Person-Trips2.0% Leisure1.7% Business3.6% Auto2.0% Air2.0% Hotel Room Demand 3.0%,Source: TIA, ATA, Smith Travel Research,International Visits Expected to Increase Again in 2005,Arrivals in Millions,Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Ind

11、ustries (OTTI),Travel Expenditures Will Continue to Rise,p = preliminary; f = forecast,Billions,Source: TIA; OTTI,Online Travel Planning Steady and Booking Continues to Rise,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Millions,How We Sell and Distribute Travel Changed Forever,Internet for leisure

12、 and business Pricing more transparent; consumer in control Encourages late bookings Increases competition Online hotel sales soaring,Whats Ahead?,Long Term Trends,Who will be tomorrows travelers and what will they do? How will technology and changing work/leisure patterns affect the nature of trave

13、l planning and travel itself? How will we reach them? What types of tourism are likely to grow?,Key Demographic Trends,Aging of population Changes in households Rising education Geographic shifts Cultural diversity Influence of women Growing niche markets,Percent Change in Population by Age, 2010/20

14、00 and 2020/2000,(Percent Change),Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,“Junior” Matures (Age 55 - 64) More Likely Than Other Travelers To ,Travel farther away from home Stay away from home longer Include two or more destinations in one trip Engage in more activities Travel with only one other household

15、 member, likely their spouse Spend more per trip,Source: TIA,Maturity Trends,Increase in adult-only travel parties Slower growth in travelers looking for “traditional” family experiences Interest in local heritage 10 27 years of age in 2004 72 million, 28% of population 13% of those age 20 24 were b

16、orn outside the U.S.,Millennial Generation Great Potential for the Future,Racially and ethnically diverse Very independent Feel powerful But of those age 20 24, 50% of men and 36% of women still live with or are dependent on parents Media-savvy Technology leaders,Travel by Minority Groups Increasing

17、,Hispanics77.1 million person-trips (8% of total) African-Americans75.2 million person-trips (7% of total) Asian-Americans33.1 million (3% of total),Source: TIA,Ethnic Groups to Grow to 50% of Population by 2050,% Distribution of Population,Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,Hispanics will Increasing

18、ly Dominate,Millions,Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,Changing Nature of Work and Leisure,Blurring of boundaries of space and time for work and leisure Dramatic growth in work flexibility Reduced need to travel solely for business, but combined business/leisure and leisure travel will grow Both bus

19、iness and leisure travel more motivated by self-actualization,Consumer Trends Likely to Build,More focus on doing well while doing good Growing interest in making contribution to society Could stimulate rise in “Volun-tourism” Increasing emphasis on quality of life and lifestyle enhancement Rising e

20、mphasis on environment and sustainability,Consumer Trends Likely to Build,Education more recognized and promoted as a lifelong goal to enhance self-actualization - personal best Leisure as learning,Types of Tourism Likely to Grow,Visit Friends/Relatives/Reunions/ Intergenerational and Grand-Travel C

21、ombined Business and Leisure Travel Second Homes and Time Share Destination Spas Enrichment Tourism,Types of Tourism Likely to Grow,Health/Revitalization/Life-Enhancement Tourism: Peter Pan generation; say no to aging Eco-Tourism and Soft Adventure Space Tourism International Travel (In and Out-Boun

22、d) Virtual Travel,Conclusions,Growth in international travel demand exceeding domestic Forecasts for similar, although somewhat slower demand growth in 2005 Despite rising demand, some sectors still struggling financially Rising fuel costs, sluggish job growth and slower economic growth will continu

23、e to make financial recovery elusive for some Internet will continue to gain ground in many aspects of travel,Conclusions,Renewed sense of optimism “Up to us to seize the day” (James Rasulo, President, Walt Disney Parks i.e. National Parks, Americas Byways, American movies, etc.,SeeAmerica Treasure

24、Hunt Game Concept Contd,Engage people by activity interest or geographic interest to encourage visitation. All game answers linked to appropriate web sites.,TIMING,Launched UK at WTM with movie category only to tie in with DOC campaign Launch international at ITB Launch domestic at Pow Wow,Game Cate

25、gories,National Parks Scenic Byways American Movies Recreation & Outdoors American Cities,Amusement Parks Famous Americans Historical Sites Famous Places Just for Fun States,Sweepstakes Structure,Qualified entry: you must answer three questions to be entered into the sweepstakes. Prizes: Proposed U.

26、S. trips, each with a theme: Americas Greatest Cities & Amtrak National Parks trip: Four Corners through Las Vegas gateway Theme parks: Orlando Movies: Hollywood Finger Lakes/Niagara Falls Alaska Cruise,Sweepstakes, Contd,Viral Component: send sweeps entry to three friends and get an additional entr

27、y for yourself. Collect names (opt in) for future email marketing.,U.S. Coop Advertising Opportunities 2005,Readers Digest March Issue (sold out) USA Today May 6 & September 16 National Geographic Traveler July/August Issue,Radio Promotion,Packaged promotion using game content 30 prizes per market 5-day promotion, 6 questions per day, one prize giveaway per question See America Week (National Tourism Week) May 8 -15, 2005,TRADE