中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)2002年

中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)2002年中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)一、（全球角度）汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)全球化的趨勢(shì)及汽車需求增長(zhǎng)的國際格局汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的全球化集中體現(xiàn)在特征上：一是汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，包括投資、生產(chǎn)、采購、銷售及售后服務(wù)、研發(fā)等主要環(huán)節(jié)的日益全球性配置。例如，過去跨國公司在本國建立、保持研發(fā)機(jī)構(gòu)，對(duì)于目標(biāo)國市場(chǎng)采取復(fù)制產(chǎn)品的方式進(jìn)行投資，而現(xiàn)在則采取將各個(gè)功能活動(dòng)和能力分配給全球市場(chǎng)的方式。由此導(dǎo)致了新的專業(yè)化分工協(xié)作模式的出現(xiàn)，特別是整車裝配與零部件企業(yè)之間呈現(xiàn)分離趨勢(shì)，零部件的跨國公司越來越多，零部件企業(yè)與整車裝配企業(yè)之間以合同為紐帶的網(wǎng)絡(luò)型組織結(jié)構(gòu)日趨明顯。整車制造企業(yè)零部件的全球采購以及零部件工業(yè)的國際化，模糊了汽車產(chǎn)品的“國家特征”，使其成為了典型的全球化產(chǎn)品。二是巨型汽車企業(yè)之間的大規(guī)模重組，形成了“6+3”的格局，9大汽車集團(tuán)的產(chǎn)量已占世界汽車產(chǎn)量80％以上。汽車企業(yè)在全球的大規(guī)模重組實(shí)質(zhì)性地改變了傳統(tǒng)的資源配置方式、產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模式和產(chǎn)業(yè)組織結(jié)構(gòu)，并使各國特別是發(fā)展中國家以往的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和相關(guān)政策面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。從汽車產(chǎn)銷量的地理分布看，歐美發(fā)達(dá)國家，普遍出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的市場(chǎng)疲軟，而發(fā)展中國家，特別是亞洲國家的形勢(shì)看好。在亞洲，韓國、泰國和中國等以其良好的成長(zhǎng)性和巨大的潛力，繼續(xù)成為世界汽車市場(chǎng)的亮點(diǎn)。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，從2002年到2010年，全球汽車產(chǎn)量將增加1100萬輛，亞太地區(qū)將新增7百萬輛以上，占到65％，而其中將有一半來自中國。二、近年來中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模和市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化中國汽車工業(yè)經(jīng)過40多年的發(fā)展，已經(jīng)成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的不斷提高和轎車開始進(jìn)入家庭，中國已經(jīng)成為世界上增長(zhǎng)最為迅速的市場(chǎng)，對(duì)全球汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生的巨大影響力。2002年全年累計(jì)生產(chǎn)汽車325輛，比2001年同期增長(zhǎng)38．49％，銷售汽車324．8萬輛，比2001年同期增漲37．1％，完成工業(yè)增加值1515億元，同比增長(zhǎng)60.94％。汽車消費(fèi)成為拉動(dòng)2002年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要力量。具有法人地位的汽車生產(chǎn)廠有120余家。2002年一汽、東風(fēng)、上汽等3大汽車集團(tuán)生產(chǎn)集中度為57％，比2001年提高了8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；中國轎車由于企業(yè)進(jìn)入和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，銷量前3位的上海大眾、一汽大眾和上海通用占總銷量的53．4％，比2001年前3名的市場(chǎng)份額下降了6．8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；其他各類汽車的生產(chǎn)集中度總體來講較之2001年也有一定程度的下降。就單個(gè)企業(yè)規(guī)模而言，中國汽車工業(yè)的前4名一汽、東風(fēng)、上汽、長(zhǎng)安等4大集團(tuán)汽車生產(chǎn)能力在30萬--60萬輛之間，規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益開始顯現(xiàn)。盡管如此，與世界級(jí)的汽車生產(chǎn)企業(yè)相比較，中國汽車工業(yè)企業(yè)的規(guī)模仍然偏小。市場(chǎng)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)帶來的直接影響，一是促使汽車價(jià)格持續(xù)下降，最終達(dá)到合理價(jià)位；二是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)領(lǐng)域不斷擴(kuò)展，不僅包括產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、質(zhì)量、性能，而且涉及市場(chǎng)營銷、售后服務(wù)、市場(chǎng)應(yīng)變能力等各個(gè)方面；三是技術(shù)進(jìn)步、產(chǎn)品研發(fā)將成為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)焦點(diǎn)。通過充分而有效的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)推進(jìn)企業(yè)優(yōu)勝劣汰，勢(shì)不可擋，并將成為推動(dòng)整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)力量。三、中國汽車工業(yè)市場(chǎng)空間、投資機(jī)會(huì)與盈利前景預(yù)測(cè)未來時(shí)期隨著影響中國汽車需求市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格、居民收入和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、汽車信貸、消費(fèi)環(huán)境的改善，特別是跨國公司主導(dǎo)下的汽車合資企業(yè)不斷在全球同步推出適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)需求的新產(chǎn)品，將對(duì)未來市場(chǎng)起到巨大的推動(dòng)作用。預(yù)計(jì)今后10解決普遍存在的企業(yè)辦社會(huì)、人員過多、債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)重、社會(huì)保障體系不健全等歷史遺留問題，推進(jìn)企業(yè)產(chǎn)權(quán)的多元化，建立有效的公司治理機(jī)制。企業(yè)重組可以在以下方面重點(diǎn)推進(jìn)：一是整合汽車資源，以增量盤活存量，提高汽車工業(yè)資產(chǎn)利用率；二是進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)與汽車跨國公司的多方面合作；三是推動(dòng)國有企業(yè)與非國有企業(yè)之間的合作；四是對(duì)不同類型的汽車產(chǎn)品采取不同的重組戰(zhàn)略；五是在強(qiáng)調(diào)放松進(jìn)入限制的同時(shí)，要大力排除退出障礙；六是積極利用資本市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)重組。(3)有所為、有所不為。在開放中逐步融入全球汽車制造分工體系。改變汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈配置主要依賴國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和國內(nèi)資源的思路，分階段地逐步融入汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的全球采購、制造、銷售、研發(fā)體系，并逐步向高段領(lǐng)域挺進(jìn)。在整車上有進(jìn)有出，集中力量發(fā)展具有市場(chǎng)和資源優(yōu)勢(shì)的部分產(chǎn)品；要充分利用中國市場(chǎng)的多層次性以生產(chǎn)中低級(jí)別的轎車作為未來時(shí)期汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn)，逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)和成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，在滿足國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的同時(shí)占領(lǐng)周邊發(fā)展中國家；同時(shí)要利用現(xiàn)有的勞動(dòng)力優(yōu)勢(shì)，扶植國內(nèi)有條件的零部件廠商要盡快向全球供應(yīng)商的角色轉(zhuǎn)變。China'sautoindustrydevelopmenttrendA,automobileindustryglobalizationtrendandautomobiledemandgrowthinternationalpatternAutoindustryglobalizationembodiedincharacteristics:oneistheautoindustrychain,includinginvestment,production,procurement,salesandafter-salesservice,researchanddevelopmentandothermainlinkincreasinglyglobalconfiguration.Forexample,themultinationalcompaniesintheirestablishment,keepr&dinstitution,tothetargetmarkettakecopyproductapproachtoinvesting,andnowaretakingwilleachfunctionalactivitiesandabilitytoglobalmarketdistributionway.Thishasledtonewspecialization,especiallytheemergenceofcooperativemodebetweenenterpriseswithpartsofvehicleassembly,partsofseparationtrendappearsmoreandmoremultinationalenterpriseandvehicleassemblycomponentsinthecontractasalinkbetweenenterprisesofnetworkorganizationalstructurehasbecomeincreasinglyevident.Thevehiclemanufacturingenterprisepartsoftheglobalsourcingandtheinternationalizationofsparepartsindustry,whichblursautomotiveproducts"nationalcharacteristics,"hastotypicalglobalizationproducts.Twogiantcarbetweenenterprise'slarge-scalerestructuring,andformeda"6+3"pattern,9automobilegroupautomobileproductionofworldoutputhasmorethan80%.Carcompaniesintheworldoflarge-scalerestructuringsubstantiallychangedthetraditionalresourceallocationmethods,industrialcompetitivemodeandindustrialorganizationstructure,andallowscountries,especiallydevelopingcountriesbeforetheautoindustrydevelopmentstrategyandrelevantpolicyisfacingseriouschallenges.Thegeographicaldistributionofcaroutputfromview,euramericandevelopedcountry,generallytherewasaseriousweaknessinthemarketanddevelopingcountries,especiallythesituationinAsiacountries.InAsia,SouthKorea,ThailandandChinawithitsgoodgrowthandthehugepotential,continuetobethehighlightoftheworldautomobilemarket.Accordingtotheforecast,from2002to2010,globalautooutputwillincrease11millionvehicles,theregionwilladdmorethan7millioncars,or65percent,andwhichwillhavehalffromChina.Second,inrecentyearsChina'sautomobileindustryscaleandmarketstructurechangesChina'sautoindustryafter40yearsofdevelopment,hasbecomeanimportantindustryofthenationaleconomy.Withthedevelopmentofeconomiclevelsrisingandcarsbegantomoveintohomes,Chinahasbecometheworld'smostrapidlygrowingmarket,globalcarindustryproducetothegreatinfluence.Annualaccumulativetotalproductioncarin2002thanin2001vehicles,32538.49%growthfromsellingauto324.8millionvehicles,thanthesameperiodin2001,pool37.1%,completeindustrialaddedvalue,year-on-yeargrowthofhispupilsabout1515billionyuan60.94%.Automobileconsumptionhasbecomepull2002themainforceofeconomicgrowth.Thelegalpersonstatusofmorethan120automanufacturers.In2002,faw,dongfeng,saicwaitforthreemajorautomotivegroup(57%)productionconcentrationthanin2001,up8percentagepoints;Chinesecarbecauseenterpriseentersandcompetitionisintense,salesofthetop3placesinShanghaiVolkswagen,fawVolkswagenandShanghaigmoftotalsalesthan2001yearsagosingle-monththreemarketsharefell6.8percentagepoints;Otherkindsofcargeneralproductionconcentrationthan2001alsohavecertaindegreeofdecline.Justasingleenterprisescale,China'sautomotiveindustry'stopfourfaw,dongfeng,saic,changanautomobileproductiononfourbiggroupin30million--abilitybetween60millionvehicles,scaleeconomicbenefitbegantoappear.Nonetheless,theautomobileproductionenterprisewithworld-classcompared,China'sautomotiveindustryenterprise'sremainedsmall.Fiercemarketcompetition,adirectresultofthepriceofcarsistomakecontinuedtodecline,andfinallyachievereasonableprice;2itiscompetitivefield,includingnotonlyexpandedproductprice,quality,performance,butalsorelatedtomarketing,after-saleservice,marketstraincapacity,etc;Threeistechnologicalprogressandproductresearchanddevelopmentwillbethefocusofcompetition.Throughthefullandeffectivecompetitionofenterprises,unstoppable,andgenerallywillbepushingthehealthygrowthoftheindustry'sleadingpower.Third,China'sautomotiveindustrymarketspace,investmentopportunitiesandprofitoutlookFutureperiodwiththeinfluenceofChineseautodemandmarketpriceandincomeandconsumptionstructure,autoloan,theimprovementinconsumptionenvironment,especiallytransnationalcompanyleadingthecarunderjointventureunceasinglyintheglobalsynchronouslaunchofnewproductstomeetmarketdemandforfuturemarket,willgreatlypushforward.Thefollowing10years-15yearsChinawillbecometheworld'slargestcarmarket,theannualsalesof$17millionvehicles,morethan1millioncarsautopossession.Inrecentyears,multinationalcompaniestospeedupthepaceoftheforayintoChinamarket,promotethedomesticautoindustryanewroundofm&aboom.MultinationalcompaniesinChinainthefutureisexpectedtotakeplacemoreintense,thedomesticseveralbigautomotivegrouprelyingonmultinationalcompanyisrapidandoutspread,willfurtheraccelerateallkindsofvehicleandpartsproductionenterprises,especiallysmes,marketstructureofm&adrasticchange,investmentopportunitieswillemerge.MergerAtpresent,China'sautoindustry'soverallprofitabilityhigherthaninternationallevel,asthepriceofaproduct,whichislikelytoreducedowninprice,butindustryprofitratedropping,costs,expensesalsohavelargerspace,totalprofitdroppedgrossindexsuchaslikelytomaintain,theremightevenimprove.Countriesfurtherreducesometaxes,willprovideforthemajorityofenterpriseswithintheindustryproductionandpricespace,ifpriceiseffectivelywithsizecanexpand,scaleeffectwillplayout,canmaketheindustrymaintainagoodlevelofefficiency.Meanwhile,partsoftheimporttariffsdropped,willmakesomemanufacturerstoimportcostsdeclined,importedpartsmoreupscaleproducteffectmoreapparent.ThecarindustryinChina'sautomobileindustrymostrapiddevelopment,notonlyoutputgrowthabovethewholecarindustryproductoutputgrowth,technologyprogressalsogreatlyaccelerated.Judgingfromtheindustry,cars,autopartsandaccessoriesenterpriseprofitabilityinindustryleadinglevel,andhasahigherreturnoninvestment.Fourth,thedevelopmenttrendofChina'sautoindustryandtheindustrialpolicyorientation1.ThedevelopmenttrendofChina'sautomobileindustry(1)isexpectedinthenext10to15years,Chinawillbecometheworld'slargestcarshoppers.Internationalexperienceshowsthatpercapitaincomelevelandautomobilepenetrationratesignificantlycorrelated.China'spercapitaGDPin2002,accordingtoofficial7972yuanistheexchangeratesmorethan$910convertedaccordingtotheworldbank,andthePPPmethodsmeasuringiscloseto$4,000.Insomedevelopedcity,southeastcoastalquiteanumberofareas,accordingtotheofficialexchangeratepercapitaGDPalsoreachedfourorfivethousanddollars,calculatedtheobviouscharacteristicsofgoingintothecarsociety.ExpectChinawillinthenext10years--15yearsinannualsalesgrowthto17mbecometheworld'slargestcarmarketbus.(2)ofautomobileproductionandconsumptioninthefuturewillbepulledverylongperiodofChina'seconomicgrowthimportantstrength.Thecarindustryisthemostwidelyaffectedthescopeofthebiggestindustryandspreadeffect.Forsteel,nonferrousmetal,rubber,plastic,glass,coatingandotherrawmaterialsindustry,casting,forging,hot,welding,stamping,machining,paint,electroplating,testandinspectionequipmentmanufacturingindustry,machinery,electronics,electricalappliances,chemicalindustry,buildingmaterials,lightindustry,textileandothersupportingproductsandcomponents,highwayconstruction,energyindustry,transportationindustryandserviceindustryandsoon,canproducehugedemand,soastopromotethedevelopmentoftheindustry.Eachyearareexpectedtothenext10years,have1/GDPincrementbysevento1/6provideautoindustry.(3)Chinaisexpectedtobecometheworldautomobilemanufacturingcenter.Chinahasinitiallyformedrelativelycompleteautomobileindustrialproductionsystem.ThisisthenewdevelopmentofChina'sautomobileindustrybegins.Inaddition,thedevelopmentofthecarindustryinChinaandthefollowingadvantages:oneisthepowermarketadvantages;2itislaborcostadvantage;Threeisstrongmanufacturingsupportingability.Expectedoverthenext10to15years,Chinaisexpectedtobecometheworld'simportantautomanufacturingoneofbase.2.ThefuturedevelopmentofChinaautomobileindustrypolicyorientation(1)createpositiveandfull,toimprovetheinternationalcompetitivenessoftheautomotiveindustrydomesticcompetitionenvironment.Shouldencouragevarioustypeenterpriseespeciallyprivateenterprise'sinto,andactivelyattractforeigndirectinvestment,especiallytransnationalcorporations,directinvestment,giventhedifferentnaturesoftheenterprisewithequalopportunity,throughmarketcompetitionmarketcompetitionofthesurvivalofthefittest,formingprocessthepowerfulmarketcompetitionstructure,leadingenterprisesandautoindustryinourcountrythefundamentalimprovetheinternationalcompetitiveness.(2)restructuring,reorganizationisanewperiodofChina'sautomobileindustryorganizationbasicpolicyorientation.Intheopen,competitive,andonthebasisofChineseautoenterpriserestructuringpushwithrestructuring.Intherestructuring,toadoptvariouswaystosolvewidespreadenterprisedosocial,personnelovermuch,debtburden,socialsecuritysystemandtheimperfectproblemsleftoverbyhistory,promoteenterprisepropertyofdiversification,theestablishmentofeffectivecorporategovernancemechanism.Corporaterestructuringcanfocusoninthefollowingrespects:oneistheintegrationwithincrementalautomotiveresources,depositquantityandimproveautomobileindustrialassetsutilization;Second,furtherstrengthen