高盛-大宗商品-5D因素驅(qū)動(dòng)的牛市-240529

29May2024|7:00PMEDT

CommodityViews

The5DBullMarket

nWeremainselectivelybullishcommoditiesbecause1)demandgrowthremainssolid,2)weseemorestructuralupsideinindustrialmetalsandgold,and3)oil’sgeopoliticalriskpremiumhasshrunk.Weexpectcommoditytotalreturnstorisefrom13%YTDto18%byyear-end.

n5Dbullmarkettrendswillcreatestructuralopportunitiesincommodities:

oDisinvestment:lowinvestmentincommoditiesinducesselecttightness

oDecarbonization&climatechange:requirehigherpricestoattractgreencapex

oDe-risking(hedging):geopoliticalde-riskingandstrategicrestockingsupportdemandforgoldandcriticalcommodities

oDatacenters&AI:supportdemandviapowerandviahigherincomes

oDefensespending:supportdemandformetalsanddistillatefuels

nWeexpectcoppertoresumeitssharprallyonce?nitestocksofcheaper

substitutesdepletewithanadditional15%ofupsideto$12,000/tbyyear-end.

nWeexpectgoldpricestorise14%to$2,700/tozbyyear-endonsoliddemandfromEMcentralbanksandAsianhouseholds.

nWeforecastBrenttostayinour$75-90range,butstillseevalueinnetlongoilpositionsfromgeopoliticalhedgingandrollyield.

nWeseelimitedfurtherupsidetonaturalgaspricesthissummerintheUSandEuropegivenstillelevatedstoragelevels.

DaanStruyven

+1(212)357-4172|

daan.struyven@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SamanthaDart

+1(212)357-9428|

samantha.dart@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

()l4S-|don

nicholas.snowdon@

GoldmanSachsInternational

LinaThomas

+44(20)7051-3062|lina.thomas@

GoldmanSachsInternational

CallumBruce,CFA

+1(212)902-3053|callum.bruce@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby

+1(646)446-3905|yulia.grigsby@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DanielMoreno

+1(212)934-1001|

daniel.moreno@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

-|

hongcen.wei@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

LaviniaForcellese

+44(20)7774-9243|

lavinia.forcellese@

GoldmanSachsInternational

BlakeWoods

+1(972)368-9739|blake.woods@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certi?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

CommodityViews

GoldmanSachs

29May2024

2

The5DBullMarket:StructuralOpportunitiesinCommoditiesFromDisinvestment,Decarbonization&ClimateChange,De-risking(Hedging),Datacenters&AI,andDefenseSpending

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May2024

3

The5DBullMarket

Q1.Whydoyouremainbullishoncommoditiesdespiteasigni?cantrally

year-to-dateacrossmanycommodities(Exhibit1)anddespiteadelayinexpectedFedcuts?

Weremainselectivelybullishforthesamethreecyclical,structural,andgeopoliticalhedgingreasonswehighlightedinour2024outlook.

Exhibit1:Signi?cantRalliesAcrossSeveralCommoditiesYTD

GSCItotalreturnYTD=13%;BCOMtotalreturnYTD=11%.Dataspansfrom31December2023to29May2024.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

First,thecyclicaloutlookforcommoditydemandremainssolid.WhileoureconomistsandbondmarketsnowexpectdelayedG10easingcycles,thegrowthimpulsefromUS?nancialconditionsremainsassupportiveasatthestartoftheyear.Theoutlookfor

manufacturingandChinaproperty—twostillweakbutkeysectorsforindustrial

commodities—hasbrightenedsomewhatwithagradualrecoveryinmanufacturing

PMIs(Exhibit2)andChinaeasingmeasures,includingfundstobeginpurchasingexcessinventory.ThecyclicalpickupingoodsdemandandinChinaexportsalsohelpsexplain

thejumpinChinaLNGimportsandtherenewedriseincontainershippingcosts(Exhibit2)alongwiththeseasonalsummerdemandincreaseandongoingdiversionsfromthe

RedSea.

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Exhibit2:TheRecoveryinManufacturingDemandIsLiftingManufacturingPMIsandFreightContainerRates

USPMIisaverageofISM/S&PglobalsurveysandChinaPMIisaverageofCaixin/NBSsurveys.EuroAreaandUSinclude?ashestimatesforJune.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,DrewryShippingConsultants

Second,whilestructuraltailwindssuchascopperunderinvestmentandEMcentralbankgoldbuyinghavesupportedthemetalsrally,weseemoreroomtorunas,forinstance,peakcopperminesupplyin2025willrequirescarcityprices.Andaftertheselloff,

re?nedoilproductmarginsarenolongerpricingthetightnessweseeasstructural.Third,thereductioninthegeopoliticalriskpremiumincrudeoilpricestojustafewdollarsmakesitattractivetohedgeagainstgeopoliticalshocks.

Onnet,weexpectsolidreturnsinselectmetalsandoiltohelptaketotalcommodityreturnsupfrom13%YTDto18%byyear-end(Exhibit3),andwecontinueto

recommendour2024De?citscommoditybaskettrade(LongGSCIenergyexUSnaturalgas,longGSCIindustrialmetalsexnickel,zinc),up16%YTD.

Exhibit3:WeForecasta18%TotalReturnfortheGSCICommodityIndexin2024

S&PGSCICommodityIndex

Dollar

Weight

HistoricalPerformance

GSForecast

2022

2023

YTD

Balance

2024

2025

S&PGSCI

100

26

-4

13

4

18

10

Energy

56

42

-5

14

8

23

12

Energyex.NaturalGas

53

42

-5

14

8

23

12

IndustrialMetals

12

-8

-4

19

6

26

27

IndustrialMetalsex.Nickel&Zinc

10

-9

-3

19

10

31

32

PreciousMetals

6

0

12

16

11

29

1

Agriculture

17

12

-8

6

-11

-6

-5

Livestock

7

5

0

11

0

11

-3

BCOM

100

16

-8

11

1

11

7

YTDrunsthrough29May2024.Totalreturnsaredisplayed.Theseincludethereturnsfromspotpricechanges,thecashreturnfromcollateral,andtherollyield.Givenwedonotcurrentlycover

agricultureandlivestock,weestimatespotreturnsasreturnsimpliedbyforwardsadjustedwiththehistoricalmedianriskpremium.Weestimaterollreturnsbasedonseasonaltimespreadsandthecurrentfuturescurveshape.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Q2.Whatisyourstructuralcalloncommodities?

Webelievethat5Dbullmarkettrendswilllikelycreatesigni?cantopportunitiesincommoditiesincomingyears:Disinvestment,Decarbonization&ClimateChange,De-risking(Hedging),Datacenters&AI,andDefenseSpending(Exhibit4).

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Exhibit4:The5DBullMarket:StructuralOpportunitiesinCommoditiesFromDisinvestment,Decarbonization&ClimateChange,De-risking(Hedging),Datacenters&AI,andDefenseSpending

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

1.Disinvestment.Ourteamhaslongemphasizedthatinvestmentincommodity

productioncapacityhasbeenlowsincethemid-2010s.Lowinvestmentre?ectsa

decadeofpoorreturnsthrough2020,andahighercostofcapitalrelatedtoESG

pressuresanduncertaintyaboutlong-rundemand,whichalsohasshiftedcapexfrom

long-cycletoshort-cycleprojects(Exhibit5).Thisshifthasreducedoilreservelifeby

55%overthepastdecade,buthasalsodelayedthebullishimpactfromlowinvestmentincrudeoil,wherenon-OPECsupplygrowthremains?rm.Incontrast,lowinvestmentisalreadyleadingtostructuraltightnessinareaswithoutsigni?cantshort-cycleoptions,includinginminingofgreenbasemetalssuchascopperandaluminum,re?ningofoilproducts,andoiltankers.

Exhibit5:CapexHasFallentoLowLevels,EspeciallyForLong-CycleProjects

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May2024

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2.Decarbonization&climatechange.Whiledecarbonizationandclimatechangehavemixedeffectsoncommoditydemand,wethinkbothwillcreatesigni?cantinvestmentopportunities.

Decarbonizationlikelyrequiresbroadlyhighercommoditypriceindicestoattractmuchhigherinvestmentduringthetransition,andtocompensateforhigherdemand

uncertainty.Ourequityanalystsestimatethatachievingnetzerocarbonemissionsby2050requiresinvestingabout2%ofglobalGDPingreeninfrastructureeveryyear.TheriseofNEVs(NewElectricVehicles)illustratesthenetbullisheffectofdecarbonizationoninvestmentandcommoditydemand.WhileoildemandedgesdownwiththeNEVshareintheglobalstockofcars(stillonly2%in2023),greenmetalsdemandrises

rapidlywiththeEVshareinglobalcarsales(already16%).

Theimpactofclimatechangeismixedforcommoditydemandwithhigherdemandforcoolingbutlowerdemandforheating,butlargelynegativeforagriculturalcommodity

supply.Cocoaandcoffeepriceshavemovedsharplythisyear(+100%and+15%YTD,respectively)asheavyrainfallsfollowedbystrongheatwavesinWestAfricaledtolowercocoaharvests,andextremedroughtsinSoutheastAsiaresultedinlowercoffeebeanharvests.Orangejuicepricesarealsohittingrecordhighs(49%YTD)owingtothe

prospectofapoorharvestinBrazil,theworld’slargestexporter,drivenbybadweatheranddisease.Finally,climatechangeisalsoboostingfreightrates,aslowwaterlevelsinthePanamaCanalpromptshipperstodiverttolongerroutes.

3.De-risking(Hedging).Afteratradewar,apandemic,andongoingwarsinUkraineandtheMiddleEast,policymakers,companies,andinvestorsarefocusedonmanaging

andhedginggeopoliticalriskstosupplychainsandportfolios.Thesetrendsarestructurallybullishforgoldandlong-cyclecriticalcommodities.

WerecentlyshowedthatEMcentralbanksbuygoldasahedgeagainstgeopoliticaland?nancialshocks,andthatnewgeopoliticalshocksmaypushgoldpricessigni?cantly

higher.WearealsoupgradingourestimatesofthepotentialboosttooilpricesfromgeopoliticalshockstosupplyintheMiddleEastbycombiningthefundamentalimpactvialowerinventories(Exhibit6,darkblue)andthelikelyriseintheriskpremium(lightblue).

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Exhibit6:GeopoliticalShocksCouldPushOilandGoldPricesSharplyHigher

WeassumeincreasesintheBrentriskpremium—de?nedastheactual1-36mtimespreadminusourestimateofitsfairvaluebasedonOECDcommercialstocksandinterestrates—correspondingtopercentile99inthedistributionsince2005fortheclosureoftheStraitofHormuzandtopercentile85foradeclineinsanctionedsupply.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Increasesinstrategicreservesofkeycommodities,includingcrudeoil,distillateoil

products,criticalminerals(e.g.copper,palladium,cobalt),andsoybeans/cornarebullishforapparentcommoditydemand.Whilethe2022energycrisismaybelong-runbearishforoilpricesbecauseofthepositivesupplyresponse,thegrowingfocusonsecurityofcommoditysupplyislikelybullishforlong-cyclecriticalcommodities(e.g.ittakes10-12

yearstobuildacoppermine)becausethestrategicdemandboostoutweighsthesupplyresponse.

Morebroadly,thefocusonsupplychainsecuritycanboostdemandforthenew,green,andoldeconomies,includingduplicate5Gnetworks(theneweconomy),domesticEVproduction(greeneconomy),anddomesticmanufacturingsupplysecuritysuchassteelproductioncapacity(oldeconomy).Andwhilefullde-globalizationwouldbebearishfortrade?owsandthustransportationfueldemand,sanctionsonRussianenergyandRedSeadisruptionshaveactuallyboostedshippingdemandvialongerroutesinastructurallybullishoiltankermarket.

4.Datacenters&AI.OureconomistsestimatethatwidespreadAIadoptioncouldfuela10-yearperiodwhereannualproductivitygrowthisasmuchas1.5pphigherthan

otherwise.SuchanAIboommayraisecommoditypricesthrough3channels.

First,rapidgrowthindatacenters,whichsupportcloudcomputingandAIalgorithms,is

alreadysupportingdemandforelectricalpower,whichinturncanboostdemandfornaturalgas,andcriticalmetalssuchascopperanduranium.Ourequityresearch

analystsexpectAI/datacenterdemandtogrowatanaverageannualizedratein

2023-2030of15%forUSpower,14%forpoweroutsidetheUS,14%forUSnatural

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gas,and6%fortheglobalcoppermarket.1Relativetothecommoditymarketsize,theexpecteddemandboostfromAI/datacentersissigni?cantandlikelytogrowovertimeforUSpowerandUSnaturalgas(demanddependsonthenumber/levelofdatacenters),butrelativelysmallandexpectedtopeakaround2026forcopper(demanddependsondatacentersgrowth).2

Exhibit7:TheExpectedDemandBoostFromDatacentersandAIisSigni?cantforUSPowerandUSNaturalGas

Power

USRoW

NaturalGasUS

CopperGlobal

AI/DatacentersDemandLevel

2023

2030

17GW

45GW

30GW

76GW

2bcf/d

5bcf/d

183kt

283kt

AI/DatacentersDemandIncrease2023-2030

AnnualAverageIncrease

2023-2030CAGR(%)

4GW

15

7GW

14

0.4bcf/d14

14kt

6

CommodityTotalDemandGrowth

ContributionofAI/Datacentersto2023-2030DemandGrowth(ppt)

2023-2030TotalMarketDemandCAGR(%)

0.9

2.7

0.2

3.1

1.2

3.4

0.04

3.0

TheCAGRfortotalmarketdemandforpowerintherestoftheworldiscalculatedfrom2023to2026duetodataavailability.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Second,strongeraggregatedemandandhigherincomescouldsupportbroader

commoditydemand.Third,ifproductivityimprovementsareoutsidethecommoditysector,thencapitalout?owsmayincreasecommoditysupplyconstraints.

Tobeclear,AImayeventuallyalsohavenegativeeffectsoncommoditypricesifproductivityenhancementsboostcommoditysupplyorleadtoenergysavings.

5.Defensespending.Worldmilitaryexpenditureroseby7%inrealtermsto$2.4tnor2.3%ofglobalGDPin2023,drivenbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandgeopolitical

tensionsinAsiaandtheMiddleEast.USdefensespendingyear-to-datehasalsorisenfasterthanexpectations(9%yoyvs.2%expected).Elevatedgeopoliticaluncertainty,commitmentstoincreasespendingfromNATOcountries,anddefensespendingasashareofglobalGDPsuggestdefensespendingmayincreasefurther.Commodities

intensivelyusedbythedefensesectorincludedistillatefuels,copper,aluminum,steel,silver,uranium,andseveralotherstrategicminerals.

Q3.Youarestructurallybullishoncopper,andexpectthenextlegoftherallyfromQ3.Why?

Ourviewremainsthatthecoppercathodemarketisonthecuspofenteringaperiodofde?citthatisgoingtogrowsigni?cantlyintothesecondhalfoftheyear.Theexpectedde?citin?ectionstemsfromacombinationof1)aprogressivesupplyshockthathas

alreadyledthecopperconcentratemarketintoextremetightness,2)amoresupportive

macrosettingforWesterndemand,giventheturninthemanufacturingcycleandexpectedmonetaryeasing,and3)aresilientChinaend-demandenvironment

underpinnedbygreensegments.

1Copperisusedinthreemainapplicationswithindatacentres:(1)powerdistribution(75%),(2)groundingandconnections(22%),(3)plumbingandHeating,Ventilation,andAirConditioning(HVAC)systems(3%)

2Tobeclear,thekeyswingfactorsindemandincomingyearswillbeLNGexportdemandfortheUSnaturalgasmarket,andgreencapexforcopper.

May

9

1500

1300

1100

900

700

500

300

100

CNY/t11000100009000800070006000500040003000

29

2024

However,itisimportanttorecognizethatthemetalmarkethasyettore?ectthat

expectedtightness,withglobalcathodestockshavingremained?xedcloseto600ktsofarinQ2.Theshorttermdeferralofde?citdoesnotre?ectabroaderfailinginstructuralfundamentaldrivers,butrathertheimpactofapredominantly?nanciallydrivensurgeincathodepriceoverthepastquarter.Theoutsizedmoveincathodepricerelativeto

fundamentalbindhasgeneratedshorttermincentivestodivertdemandandtighteningeffectsawayfromcathodetoothersegmentsofthecoppermarket,mostnotablescrapanddownstreamproducts(semis).TheevidenceofthisisparticularlyclearinChina,

wheretheonshorescrapdiscounthaswidenedsharplyanddownstreamsemisproductstocksaredown12%April-to-date.IntheWest,however,wewouldnotethatscrap

discountsremainverytight,re?ectingalimitedshortrunmidstreamresponsefromthisregion.Untilthefundamentalbindsfromweakminesupplyandhealthyenddemand

drivethetightnessintothecathodemarket,weseeaneartermalbeitbriefphaseof

priceconsolidationasmostlikely.However,weexpectbyQ3demandandtightening

effectstohavebeendivertedbacktowardcathodeandatrendofstockdrawsfromthenonward.Weexpectcopperpricetomovehigherintothesecondhalfoftheyearand

into2025,re?ectedinour$12,000/tyear-endtarget.

Exhibit8:MidstreamResponsesinChinaHaveTemporarilyReducedCopperCathodeDemandAftertheSharpRallyinLMEPrice

kt

1500

1300

1100

900

700

500

300

100

kt

Globalvisiblecoppercathodestocks

6yearrange(2016-2021)

2022

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Copperscrap

discount

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,SMM,Wind,Bloomberg

Q4.Youstronglyrecommendlonggoldpositions.Why?

Becauseweexpectgoldpricestoperformstronglyinourbasecase,andbecauseweseeevenmoreupsideingeopolitical/?nancialtailscenarioswhereotherassetswouldlikelyperformpoorly.

Ourbasecaseisthatgoldappreciatesto$2,700/tozbyyear-end(14%),owingtostrongfear-relateddemandfromAsianhouseholdsandEMcentralbanksandlowerUSinterestrates.

EconomicuncertaintyandcurrencydepreciationfearsaredrivingAsianhouseholds,

particularlyinChinaduetotheslumpingpropertysector,torushtogold.ThissurgeinChineseappetiteforgoldismoreimpactfulthancommonlyappreciated.AlthoughhighinterestratesintheWestusuallydampengold’sappeal—sinceitdoesnotyield

interest—thishistoricallynegativecorrelationhas?ippedthisyear.Butgoldhasn’tjustdivergedfromUSyields;itisnowmorecloselyrelatedtorealyieldsinChina,whichisitsnewmarginalbuyer.

CommodityViews

GoldmanSachs

29May2024

10

Fearsofpotential?nancialsanctionsduetorisinggeopoliticalriskandworriesaboutUSsovereigndebthavespurredEMcentralbankstodiversifytheirof?cialreservesawayfromtheUSdollarandtripletheirpurchasesofgold.WethinkthatstrongdemandfromAsianhouseholdsandEMcentralbanksarestructuraltrends,whichwillkeepa?rmbidundergold.

Weseeevenmoreupsidetothegoldpriceingeopoliticaland?nancialtailscenarios,inwhichequity-bondportfolioswouldlikelysuffer.Speci?cally,arisein?nancialsanctions—similartotheincreaseseensince2021—mayboostgoldbyanadditional16%(to$3,130/toz)onthebackofadditionalcentralbankbuying.GrowingconcernsoverUS

?scalsustainability,re?ectedinaonestandarddeviationincreaseintheUS-5yearCDSspread,wouldraisegoldpricesbyanadditional14%(to$3,080/toz).Forcontext,suchahypothetical13bpincreaseintheUSCDSspreadwouldbesimilartotheincreaseseenin2023Q1aroundthedebtceilingdebate.

Q5.WhydoyouseevalueinlongoilpositionsifyoucontinuetocallforBrentcrudeoilpricesina75-90range?

Wethinkthatelevatedsparecapacitylimitstheupsidetooilprices,whileOPEC’s

marketmanagement,lowrecessionriskandopportunisticSPRpurchaseslimitthedownside.Givenrecentinventorybuilds,weexpectOPEC+countriestofullyextendtheirvoluntaryproductioncutsinQ3atSunday’smeeting.

Whiletoday’sBrentspotpriceisequaltoour2024Q4forecastof$85/bbl,westillseevalueinlongoilpositionsforthreereasons.First,weexpecttheoilmarkettoremaininbackwardationthisyearowingtosoliddemandandextendedOPEC+productioncuts,whichthroughtherollyieldwillcontinuetocontributetoasigni?canttotalreturnon

Brentfuturesof25%thisyear(Exhibit9).Second,thevalueofoilasahedgeagainstgeopoliticalsupplydisruptionshasrisenwiththerecentdeclineinthegeopoliticalriskpremium.Third,weexpectdieselre?ningmarginstorecoverasdieselsupplyfallsasaresultoflowmarginsforAsianmarginalre?nersandshiftsinre?ningsupplyawayfromdiesel.

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Exhibit9:BackwardationintheOilMarketWillContinuetoContributetoaSigni?cantTotal25%ReturnonBrentin2024ViatheRollYield

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Q6.HowmuchupsidedoyouseefornaturalgaspricesfollowingtheirrallyintheUSandEurope?

Afterpricingbelow$2/mmBtufornearlythreemonthstoincentivizeproduction

curtailmentstopreventstoragecongestion,USgaspricesrallied30%inMaytoabove$2.80/mmBtu,beforemoderatingbacktoa$2.50-$2.60range.Webelievethismovewaslargelyjusti?edbyaphysicaltighteninginthemarket,primarilydrivenbya

combinationofsharpproductiondeclines(owingtobothproducercutsand

maintenanceevents)andanormalizationingasdemandforexportsfollowingasigni?cantoutageatanLNGexportfacilityduringApril.

However,wecontinuetoseelimitedupsidetoUSgaspricesfromcurrentlevels.

Speci?cally-andaswerecentlydiscussed-weestimatethatasustainedincreasein

pricesrelativetoour$2.65/mmBtuSum24forecastwouldleadto(1)adecreaseingasburnsfromcoal-to-gasswitchingand(2)anunwindinproductionshut-ins,whichwe

startedtoobserveoverthepastweek.Thiswouldultimatelypreventphysicaltighteninginthemarketandkeepstorageonanelevatedpath,whichcouldonceagainincrease

congestionrisks.WeexpectHenryHubpricestorisemoremeaningfullyonceweenterwinter,withsupportfromincreasingfeedgasdemandfromnewLNGprojects,andwemaintainour$3.80/mmBtu2025NYMEXnaturalgaspriceforecast,vsforwardsat

$3.5/mmBtu.

InEurope,weseegasinventoriescomfortablethroughoutthissummer,withlow

Europeandemandkeepingstorageelevated,whileadeclineinEuropeanLNGimports,helpedbystrongAsiademand,contributestopreventingstoragecongestionthis

season.WeexpectthistokeepEuropeangaspricesbelowcoal,near30EUR/MWh(vs35EUR/MWhcurrentlypricedinthemarket).Goingintowinter,however,wenotetheregionremainsvulnerabletocolder-than-averagewinters,giventhatglobalLNGsupplydoesn’tstarttogrowmoresigni?cantlyuntil2025andbeyond.Asaresult,wecontinue

29May2024

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toseeriskstoTTFskewedtotheupsidethiswinter.Inacolder-than-averagewinter

scenario,Europeangaspricescouldquicklyrallytogas-to-oilswitchingeconomicsina63EUR/MW(residualfueloil)to83EUR/MWh(distillatefuel)range.

CommodityViews

GoldmanSachs

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,DaanStruyven,SamanthaDart,NicholasSnowdon,LinaThomas,CallumBruce,CFA,YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby,DanielMoreno,HongcenWei,

LaviniaForcelleseandBlakeWoods,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-speci?cregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:Analystsarepaidinpartbasedonthepro?tabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asof?cerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanof?cer,directororadvisor