美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)商業(yè)銀行與貨幣供應(yīng)(英文版)

TheFederalReserve,CommercialBanking,andtheSupplyofMoneyRememberthestoryofGoldilocksandthethreebears?“Papabear’sbedwastoohard…..Mamabear’sbedwastoosoft…..butbabybear’sbedwasjustright!Babybear’sbedandthesupplyofmoney…Withoutenoughmoney,itbecomesdifficulttoconductcommerce…transactionsslowdownandtheeconomyfallsintorecessionLikeanycommodity,excesssupplylowersthevalueofmoney….toomuchmoneycreatesinflation.Weneedtofindabalancebetweenthetwo…TheConstitutiongrantsthefederalgovernmentthepower"tocoinMoney,regulatetheValuethereof...”

TheUSbeganmintingUScoinsshortlyaftertheconstitutionwasratifiedHalfCent(Copper)OneCent(Copper)TwoCents(Copper)ThreeCents(Nickel/Copper)Nickel/HalfDime(Silver/Copper)TwentyCents(Silver)QuarterDollar(Silver)Dime(Silver/CopperOneDollar(Silver)OneDollar(Gold)2?Dollar(QuarterEagle)ThreeDollarFiveDollar(HalfEagle)TenDollar(Eagle)TwentyDollar(DoubleEagle)HalfDollar(Silver)Productionofgoldcoinsceasedin1934.Silvercoinswereminteduntil1964.CurrentUSCoins99%Zinc,1%CopperAnnualProduction:6.8M75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:1.4B75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:2.5B75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:2.4B75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:5.8M88%Copper,6%Zinc,3%Magnesium,3%NickelAnnualProduction:5.3MPapermoneywasinitiallyissuedbycommercialbanksasclaimstotheirdepositsofgoldandsilver(coinsorbars)AssetsLiabilities$500(Gold)$1,000(Loans)$300(Deposits)$1,000(Notes)$200(Equity)Thesupplyofmoneywasdeterminedbytheindividualbank’sprofitmotive-theycreatedloansbyissuingbanknotesBanknoteswereonlyredeemable(forgold/silver)attheissuingbankNorthamptonBankAssetsLiabilities$1,000(Gold)$10,000(T-Bills)$20,000(USNotes)UnitedStatesnoteswereprinteduntil1963,butwereasmallfractionoftotalmoney1910:onetenth1960:onehundredthTheUSbeganissuingGreenbacksin1862afterpassingthelegaltenderact.USNoteswerefractionallybackedbygold,butwere“l(fā)egaltenderforalldebtspublicandprivateUSTreasuryAssetsLiabilities$1,000(Gold)$1,000(GoldNotes)$10,000(SilverNotes)Goldnoteswereprinteduntil1934.All$1billsintheUSweresilvercertificatesuntil1963andwerestillconvertibletosilveruntil1968Gold/SilverCertificateswere100%backedbygold/silverreservesattheUSTreasury,butwerenotlegaltenderUSTreasury$10,000(Silver)NationalnoteswereconvertibletoT-BillsatanynationalbankNationalBanknoteswereissueduntil1934TheNationalBankingActof1863allowedNationallycharteredbankstodistributebanknotes(deemedlegaltender)securedbyUSDebt(bankscouldissuenotesequalto90%oftheirUSdebtholdings)AssetsLiabilities$50,000(T-Bills)$50,000(Loans)$25,000(Deposits)$45,000(Notes)$30,000(Equity)1stNationalBankofForestCityTheFederalReservecouldissuenewcurrencybypurchasingUSDebteitherinprivatemarketsordirectlyfromtheTreasuryFederalReservenoteswereconvertibletogolduntil1934(individuals)1971(CentralBanks)TheFederalReservewascreatedin1913toessentiallytakeoverthemoneysupplyroleofnationalbanks.AssetsLiabilities$50,000(T-Bills)$60,000(Notes)FederalReserveBank$10,000(Gold)Denominationsof$500,$1,000,$5,000,and$10,000werenolongerprintedafter1946forfearofGermancounterfeitingTheLargestdenominationeverprintedwasa$100,000goldcertificate.Itwasnevercirculated,butwasusedforinter-banktransfersCreditChannelsundertheNational/StateBankingSystemSmallStatebankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfromlargerstatebanksLargerStatebankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfromNationalbanksNationalbankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfrommoneycenterbanksMoneycenterbankswerethe“rootsource”ofcreditCreditChannelsundertheNational/StateBankingSystemTheFederalReserveTheFederalReserveSystemwascreatedin1913byWoodrowWilson.Regulatethebankingindustry“LenderofLastResort”RegulatethemoneysupplyProvidebankingservicesforthefederalgovernmentCheckClearingCreditChannelsundertheFederalReserveSystemFederalReserve=FederalFundsMarket=DiscountWindowTheFederalReserveSystemDividesthecountryinto12Districtsnumbered1-12fromeasttowestTheFederalReserveboardisheadquarteredinWashingtonDC.TheBoardConsistsof7“Governors”appointedbythePresidentandconfirmedbytheSenatefor14YearNon-RenewabletermsAlanGreenspan(1992)RogerFerguson(2001)EdwardGramlich(1997)BenBernanke(2003)SusanBies

(2001)MarkOlsen(2001)DonaldKohn(2002)TheChairmaniselectedfromtheBoardforarenewable4yeartermEachdistricthasaFederalReserveBankwithabankpresidentelectedbythebank’sboardofdirectorsfor4yearrenewabletermsBoardofDirectorsBankPresidentClassA(4)ClassB(4)ClassC(4)MemberBanksLocalBusinessFederalReserveBoardTheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)isthepolicymakinggroupoftheFederalReserveSystem.Theymeetapproximately8timesperyear.PoliciesaredeterminedbymajorityvoteBoardofGovernors(7)NYFedPresident(1)RegionalFedPresidents(4)Generally,all12bankpresidentsarepresentatthemeeting,butonly5canvote.TheNYFedpresidenthasapermanentvotewhiletheremainingpresidentsvoteonarevolvingbasis.Moneycanbeanythingthatsatisfies:StoreofValueUnitofaccountMediumofexchangeLotsofthingssatisfythesepropertiesControllingtheSupplyofMoneyStandardDefinitionsofMoneyMonetaryBase(M0):DirectliabilitiesofthecentralbankCurrencyincirculation+BankReservesM1:Currencyincirculation+Traveler'sChecks+CheckingaccountsM2:M1+Savingsaccounts+MoneyMarketAccounts+SmallTimeDepositsM3:M2+LargeTimeDeposits+EurodollarsOncethosereservesenterthebankingsector,theyareusedasthebasisforcreatingloans.Theseloansmakeuptherestofthemoneysupply.Thefedcan’tcontrolthis,butcaninfluenceitMBM3M2M1TheFederalReservecanperfectlycontrolthemonetarybase(cash+bankreserves)MoneySupplyintheUS(inBillions)MBM1M3M2CashMoneySupplyintheUSTheReserveRequirementistheleastusedoftheFed’spolicytools.ABankisrequiredtokeepaminimumpercentageofitsdepositseitherascashorondepositatthefederalreserve(reservedepositspaynointerest)AssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilities$45,000(T-Bills)$50,000(Deposits)$100,000(Equity)FederalReserveAcmeNationalBank$100,000(Loans)$2,500(Cash)$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(Reserves)Acmecurrentlyhas10%ofitsdepositliabilitiesonReserve(Cash+Reserves)/DepositsReserveAccountsareliabilitiesoftheFedSupposeAcmeBankwantedtocreatea$30,000loan.Thisisdonebyestablishingalineofcredit(i.e.creatinganewcheckabledeposit)AssetsLiabilities$45,000(T-Bills)$50,000(Deposits)$100,000(Equity)AcmeNationalBank$100,000(Loans)$2,500(Cash)$2,500(Reserves)Acme’sreserveratiodropsto6.25%(5/80)$30,000(Loan)$30,000(Deposit)TheloanshowsuponbothsidesofthebalancesheetReservesandcasharecomponentsofM0whilethenewlycreatedloansarecomponentsofM1orM2AssetsLiabilities$45,000(T-Bills)$50,000(Deposits)$100,000(Equity)AcmeNationalBank$100,000(Loans)$2,500(Cash)$2,500(Reserves)$30,000(Loan)$30,000(Deposit)MonetaryBaseCashinCirculationBankReservesM1CashinCirculationCheckingAccountsM2M1SavingsAccountsTypeofLiabilityReserveRequirementTransactionAccount$0-$7M0%$7M-$47.6M3%Morethan$47.6M10%TimeDeposits0%Eurocurrencies0%TheReserveRequirementhasnoimpactonthemonetarybase,butitrestrictstheabilityofbankstocreateloans–thisinfluencesthebroaderaggregates.Thediscountwindowwastheprimarypolicytoolofthefederalreservewhenitwasfirstestablishedin1913.Discountwindowloansarecollateralizedbytheassetsofthebank(equaltoaround90%oftheloan)AssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilities$45,000(T-Bills)$80,000(Deposits)$50,000(Equity)FederalReserveAcmeNationalBank$130,000(Loans)$2,500(Cash)$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(Reserves)Thisbankwouldliketocreate$70,000loan,butdoesn’thavethereservestobackitupRes.Req.=5%A$2,500loanfromthediscountwindowwouldraisereservestotherequired5%$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(Loan)$2,500(Disc.Loan)TypeofCreditInterestRatePrimary(NoQuestionsAsked)FedFunds+1%(3.5%)Secondary(AdditionalFinancialInformationRequired)FedFunds+1.5%(4.0%)Seasonal(Mustdemonstratereoccurringseasonalliquidityneeds,<$500MinDeposits)FedFunds+.2%(2.7%)DiscountLendingBypurchasingand/orsellingsecurities,theFedcandirectlycontrolthequantityofnon-borrowedreservesinthebankingsector.BondDealerFederalReserveDealersBuy/SellbondsfromtheFedTheFeddebits/creditsthereserveaccountofthedealer’sbankMosttransactionsaredonewithrepurchaseagreements(Repos).Thesearepurchases/salesalongwithanagreementtoreversethetransactionatalaterdateCurrently,openmarketoperationsaretheprimarypolicytooloftheFed.TradingtakesplaceinNYCAssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilities$45,000(T-Bills)$80,000(Deposits)$50,000(Equity)FederalReserveAcmeNationalBank$130,000(Loans)$2,500(Cash)$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(Reserves)Res.Req.=5%Anopenmarketpurchaseincreasesthereservesofthebankingsector–thisraisesM0$2,500(Reserves)-$2,500(T-Bills)$2,500(Reserves)$2,500(T-Bills)AssetsLiabilitiesAssetsLiabilities$2,000(T-Bills)$1,000B(Equity)FederalReserveBankingSector$3,000(Other)$54B(Cash)$46B(Reserves)$700B(Currency)Res.Req.=5%$2,701(Mortgage)Reserves$700B(T-Bills)$1B(Loans)$25B(Gold)$20B(Other)$44B(Required)$1B(Excess)$1B(Borrowed)MB=$746B$800B(Checking)$4,500B(Saving)$1,500B(FedFunds)$1B(Discount)LoansLoansM1=$700B+$800B=1,500BM2=$700B+$800B+$4,500B=$6,000BM1MB=2.01M2MB=8.04TheMoneymultipliersdescribetherelationshipbetweenachangeinthemonetarybase(controlledbytheFed)andthebroaderaggregates$ChangeinM1=mm1*$ChangeinMBmm=1+

CashDepositsCashDepositsReservesDeposits+$ChangeinM2=mm2*$ChangeinMBmm2=1+

CashDepositsCashDepositsReservesDeposits+M2-M1Deposits+TheFedcaninfluencetotalbankreserves,whichaffectsthemultipliers!FedPolicyfromstarttofinish….Staffeconomistsateachfederalreservebankbriefthepresidentoflocal/nationaleconomicconditionsBankPresidents/GovernorspresentpolicyrecommendationstotheFOMC–Avoteistaken.Themonetarybaseistobeincreasedby$100MThisorderispassedtothetradingdeskinNYCTradingdeskcallsbonddealersandasksforbidsFedPolicyfromstarttofinish….AssetsLiabilitiesAcmeNationalBank+$100M(Reserves)+$100M(Deposits)Thedealerswiththewinningbidsdeliverthebonds.Theirbank’sreserveaccountsarecreditedThebankmustkeepapproximately5%(reserverequirement)ofthenew