全球太陽能光伏市場回顧2024（英）-26正式版-WN8

Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreachSnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets2024ReportIEA-PVPST1-42:2024Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2023SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsWhatisIEAPVPSTCP?TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),foundedin1974,isanautonomousbodywithintheframeworkoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD).TheTechnologyCollaborationProgramme(TCP)wascreatedwithabeliefthatthefutureofenergysecurityandsustainabilitystartswithglobalcollaboration.Theprogrammeismadeupof6000expertsacrossgovernment,academia,andindustrydedicatedtoadvancingcommonresearchandtheapplicationofspecificenergytechnologies.TheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgramme(IEAPVPS)isoneoftheTCPswithintheIEAandwasestablishedin1993.Themissionoftheprogrammeisto“enhancetheinternationalcollaborativeeffortswhichfacilitatetheroleofphotovoltaicsolarenergyasacornerstoneinthetransitiontosustainableenergysystems.”Inordertoachievethis,theProgramme’sparticipantshaveundertakenavarietyofjointresearchprojectsinPVpowersystemsapplications.TheoverallprogrammeisheadedbyanExecutiveCommittee,comprisedofonedelegatefromeachcountryororganisationmember,whichdesignatesdistinct‘Tasks,’thatmayberesearchprojectsoractivityareas.TheIEAPVPSparticipatingcountriesareAustralia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,theNetherlands,Norway,Portugal,SouthAfrica,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,andtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.TheEuropeanCommission,SolarPowerEurope,theSmartElectricPowerAlliance,theSolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation,andtheCopperAlliancearealsomembers.Visitusat:WhatisIEAPVPSTask1?TheobjectiveofTask1oftheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgrammeispromotingandfacilitatingtheexchangeanddisseminationofinformationonthetechnical,economic,environmentalandsocialaspectsofPVpowersystems.Task1activitiessupportthebroaderPVPSobjectives:tocontributetocostreductionofPVpowerapplications,toincreaseawarenessofthepotentialandvalueofPVpowersystems,tofostertheremovalofbothtechnicalandnon-technicalbarriersandtoenhancetechnologyco-operation.Authors??Data:IEAPVPSReportingCountries,BecquerelInstitute(BE).Analysis:Ga?tanMasson,ElinaBosch,AdrienVanRechem,Melodiedel’Epine(BecquerelInstitute),IEAPVPSTask1members?Editor:Ga?tanMasson,IEAPVPSTask1Manager.?

Design:IEAPVPSDISCLAIMERTheIEAPVPSTCPisorganisedundertheauspicesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)butisfunctionallyandlegallyautonomous.Views,findingsandpublicationsoftheIEAPVPSTCPdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsorpoliciesoftheIEASecretariatoritsindividualmembercountriesDatafornon-IEAPVPScountriesareprovidedbyofficialcontactsorexpertsintherelevantcountries.Dataarevalidatthedateofpublicationandshouldbeconsideredasestimatesinseveralcountriesduetothepublicationdate.COVERPICTUREPlusUltraAmsterdam200kWpintheplaneandonthecantileveredfins(theNetherlands).Solutions/Photostuip/BIPVNederlandimagecredits:SaintGobainISBN978-3-907281-55-0:2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYPHOTOVOLTAICPOWERSYSTEMSPROGRAMMEIEAPVPSTask1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreachReportIEA-PVPST1-42:2024April2024ISBN978-3-907281-55-0Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsEXECUTIVESUMMARYTheglobalPVcumulativecapacitygrewto1.6TWin2023,upfrom1.2TWin2022,withfrom407.3GWto446GW1ofnewPVsystemscommissioned–andintheorderofanestimated150GWofmodulesininventoriesacrosstheworld.Afterseveralyearsoftensiononmaterialandtransportcosts,modulepricesplummetedinamassivelyover-suppliedmarket,maintainingthecompetitivityofPVevenaselectricitypricesdecreasedafterhistoricalpeaksin2022.Majortrendsinclude:?Withactivedevelopmentpolicies,China’sPVinstallationssoaredtoarecord235GWDC(orevenupto277GW2)orover60%ofnewglobalcapacityreaching662GWofcumulativecapacity.Remarkably,thisannualcapacityrepresentsover15%ofthetotalglobalcumulativecapacityandisnearlytheequivalentofthesecondlargestcumulativecapacity:Europe.Thisonceagainrepresentedamorethandoubledannualinstalledcapacity,upfrom105.5GWin2023and54.9GWin2021.?Europedemonstratedcontinuedstronggrowthinstalling61GW(ofwhich55.8GWintheEU),ledbyaresurgenceinGermany(14.3GW),andincreasedvolumesinPoland(6.0GW),Italy(5.3GW)andtheNetherlands(4.2GW)whilstSpaindroppedslightly(7.7GW).??IntheAmericas,bothmajormarketsgrew-theUSA,afteraslow2022installed33.2GW,andBrazilsustaineditsdynamic2022markettoinstall11.9GW,bringingitscumulativecapacityintotheTopTenworldwide.Indiahadaslightlysloweryearwith16.6GW,onceagainpredominantlyincentralisedsystems.OtherAsia-Pacificmarketssloweddowntoo,includingAustralia(3.8GW),whileKorea(3.3GW)andJapan(6.3GW)remainedsteady.MarketgrowthoutsideofChinareachedanhonourable30%,whileChina’sowndomesticgrowthwasabove120%whichexplainedthetremendousPVmarketdevelopment.Thenumberofcountrieswiththeoreticalpenetrationratesover10%doublesincelastyearto18,andwhilstsmallerpopulationssuchasSpain,theNetherlands,ChileandGreecewereleaders,morepopulouscountries,includingGermanyandJapanalsopassed10%.Whilegrid1AllcapacitydatainthisreportisDC,unlessspecifiedotherwise.Forsomecountries,thismeanspublishingdifferentvaluestoofficialdata–forexample,China’sNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA)publishesinACandPVPSappliesaconversionratiofromACtoDC.ArangeofvaluesisoftenprovidedtoaccountforuncertaintyinAC/DCconversionratios,inparticularwithregardstonewutilityscalecapacityinChina,wheretheminimalannualvolumeconsidersofficialChinareportingandthemaximalannualvolumeconsidersafurther42GWthatcouldhavebeeninstalledconsideringtheuncertaintysurroundingofficialconversionratiosfromACtoDCofUtilityscalesystems.Formanyfigures,thesetwovalueshavebeenrepresentedwithfull(minimum)andadditionalshaded(maximum)bars.Ifnorangeisspecified,compileddatareferstothelowertotalswithOfficialChinareportingvalues.Seesection3formoreinformation.2See(1)above4<企業(yè)服務(wù)><個人服務(wù)>能研智庫可提供以下企業(yè)服務(wù)（前四項）和個人服務(wù)（后四項），詳見下欄，每張圖片均超鏈接相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)的詳細介紹。ERR能研微訊訂閱號二維碼（左）ERR能研君能研智庫ERR能研微訊丨申請加入能源群

（右，申請請訂閱號二維碼（左）丨頭條號、西瓜視頻（右)提供工作名片或者學(xué)生證驗證身份)能研智庫能研智庫業(yè)務(wù)合作視頻號二維碼（左）丨抖音視頻（右)Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketscongestionhasbecomeanissue,policymeasures,technicalsolutionsandstoragearealreadyprovidingworkablesolutionstoenhancePVpenetration.Individualmarketsremainsensitivetopolicysupportanddomesticelectricitypricesdespitecompetitivityacrossmostmarketsegmentsinmanycountries.TheabilityoflocalmanufacturingprojectsinitiatedinpreviousyearstogoaheadisuncertainassignificantincreasesinmanufacturingcapacityinChinahaveledtosupplyoutstrippingglobaldemandandconsequentrecordlowmoduleprices.SignificantdropsinPVmodulepricesduetoincreasedinventory,oversupplyandcompetitiveenvironmentamongmanufacturerscausedstrainonlocalmanufacturing.PVplayedanimportantroleinthereductionoftheCO2emissionsfromelectricityin2023,withmorethan75%ofnewrenewablecapacityinstalledin2023,generatingnearly60%ofgenerationfromnewrenewablecapacity.OversupplyofPVmodulesin2023hasshedalightonthedifficultiestoalignproductionanddemandinaveryversatileenvironment:whileproductioncapacitiesincreasedsignificantlyinChina,theglobaldemandwasframedbyconstraintsinmarketssuchastheUSA,India,Korea,andAustralia,notexclusively.GrowthoutsideChinahappenedinalimitednumberofcountries.UnevenpoliticalsupportinsomemarketscouldalsobeattributedtothedifficultiestodeveloplocalPVmanufacturingfacilitiesinanalreadyinundatedmarket.5Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets6Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets1SNAPSHOTOFTHEGLOBALPVMARKETIN2023IEAPVPShasdistinguisheditselfthroughouttheyearsbyproducingunbiasedreportsonthedevelopmentofPVallovertheworld,basedoninformationfromofficialgovernmentbodiesandreliableindustrysources.This12theditionofthe“SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets”aimsatprovidingpreliminaryinformationonhowthePVmarketdevelopedin2023.The29theditionofthePVPScomplete“TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications”reportwillbepublishedinQ42024.1.1EvolutionofAnnualInstallationsItappearsthat1581GWrepresentstheminimuminstalledcumulativecapacitybytheendof2023,andatleast407.3GWbutperhapsasmuchas446GW3ofPVsystemshavebeencommissionedintheworldlastyear.IEAPVPScountries4,forwhomthereisafirmlevelofcertaintyinthedata,represented1342.7GW(or85%)ofcumulativecapacityand352.8GW(87%)ofannualinstallations.Thisyear’snewinstallationshavenearlydoubledthoseof2022,upfrom236GW,withagrowthrateofover80%-aratenotseensince2011.In2023,atleast29countriesinstalledmorethan1GW,upfrom25countriesin2022.Nineteencountries(notincludingtheEU)nowhavemorethan10GWoftotalcumulativecapacityandfivehavemorethan40GW.Chinaalonerepresentedaminimumof662GWfollowedbytheEuropeanUnion(asEU27)with268.1GW,theUSAranksthirdat169.5GWandIndiahasovertakenJapantotakefourthplacewith95.3GW.GWpFIGURE1:EVOLUTIONOFANNUALPVINSTALLATIONS4464074003002001000236174146113103

10577513840323017782008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023IndiaBrazilEuropeanUnionOthercountriesUSAOtherIEAPVPSCountriesSource:IEAPVPS3Theminimalannualvolumeof407.3GWconsidersofficialChinareporting;themaximalannualvolumeof446GWconsidersafurther42GWthatcouldhavebeeninstalledconsideringtheuncertaintysurroundingofficialconversionratiosfromACtoDCofUtilityscalesystems.Formanyfigures,thesetwovalueshavebeenrepresentedwithfull(minimum)andadditionalshaded(maximum)bars.Ifnototherwisespecified,compileddatareferstothelowertotalswithOfficialChinareportingvalues.4Forthepurposeofthisreport,IEAPVPScountriesarethosethatareeithermemberintheirownrightorthroughtheadhesionoftheEC.7Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsInthepasttwoyears,themarketinChinahasgrownsoquicklyandspectacularlythatnoothermajormarkethasbeenabletokeepup–notevenEuropewithitsownsustainedgrowth(seeFigure2).Withcontinueddynamicgrowth,Chinaremainsthemajorregionalmarketin2023withover60%ofnewcapacity(comparedto45%in2022),whilstEuropeandtheUSAaccountforjust20%,significantlylessthanin2022.The2023growthinChinacamemostlyfromanattempttoabsorbthemassiveproductionofPVcomponentsfromlocalmanufacturers,hence2023numbersforChinaarefarbeyondtheauthoritiestargetsforPVdeployment.Withcontinueddynamicgrowth,Chinaremainsthemajorregionalmarketin2023withapproximately60%ofnewcapacity(comparedto45%in2022),whilstEuropeandtheUSAaccountforjustover20%,significantlylessthanin2022.The2023growthinChinacamemostlyfromanattempttoabsorbthemassiveproductionofPVcomponentsfromlocalmanufacturers,hence2023numbersforChinaarefarSource:IEAPVPSbeyondtheauthoritiestargetsforPVdeployment.Overthepast10years,annualgrowthratesfornewcapacityinChinahavefluctuatedaccordingtopolicyandotherconstraints,withseveralyearsofnegativegrowthandseveralotheryearsofgrowthratesover100%(includingthisyear’sover125%).TheglobalmarketexcludingChinahashadasteadierevolutionwithgrowthratesof10%to37%overthisperiod.However,withthenewsizeoftheChinesemarket,thesteadyinginfluenceofothermarketswilldiminishsignificantly.FIGURE3:GROWTHOFNEWANNUALCAPACITYINMAJORMARKETSGWp400300200100020162017201820192020Japan20212022USA2023OthercountriesIndiaOtherIEAPVPScountriesEuropeanUnionChina**OfficialChinareportingSource:IEAPVPS8Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets1.2ImpactoftheUkraineWarandover-capacityinmanufacturingFromearly2022,thepoliticaltensionsinEuropeandresultingreducedgasacquisitionshadresultedinseveralhighpeaksinwholesaleanddomesticelectricityprices,notjustinEuropebutacrossarangeofothercountriesasfarasAustralia-althoughby2023thesepriceshavestabilisedsomewhat.InEurope,2023spotpriceswereinthe50€/MWhto100€/MWhrange,downfrom2022peaksover300€/MWhto500€/MWh.Despitethereductioninelectricityprices,theyremainhigherthanwhatmanyPVplantscanprovide,leavingthedooropentoPVcompetitivenessonelectricitymarkets,independentlyoftherecord-lowpricesforPVmodulesseenfrommid-2023.In2023,thecontinuedincreaseinmanufacturingcapacitylargelyoutstrippedthemarket’sabilitytoabsorbnewmoduleavailability.Bytheendof2022,modulestockshadalreadyreachedavolumeabovethatoftheEuropeanandUSAinstalledmarketscombined,and2023onlysawanaccelerationofthistrend.Thereisnowanestimated150GWofmodulestock.Compoundingtheeffectsofincreasedmanufacturingcapacityleadingtolargeinventories,thetransitionofthemainstreamindustryfromPERCtoTOPCon(amongstothern-typetechnologies),andanimportantbutnotsufficientglobalmarketgrowth.Thishasresultedinmassivepricedropsalongthevaluechain.DomesticdemandinChina,pulledbyfavourablelocalpolicies,hasensuredthatapartoftheoversupplyhasbeenabsorbed.However,theuptakehasn’tbeenabletocompensateforthetremendousoversupplyalone,andthehonourablebutinsufficientgrowthofglobalPVmarketshasledtoasignificantdropinPVmodulemarketprices.Atthebeginningof2024,severalChinesemanufacturersthatremainedlargelyviablein2023,calledforurgentmeasuresinChinatoavoidtheentireindustrycollapsing,asdidsmallermanufacturersoutsideChina.Increasingcontroversysurroundingtheverylowlate2023modulepricesontheinternationalmarkethasledtoindustrydiscussiononunsustainablepricedumping.ThelowpricesandlargeinventorieshavebeenparticularlyimpactingontheslowdevelopmentoflocalmanufacturingprojectsoutsideofChinaandSouth-EastAsia,wherecompetitivenesswasalreadyconsideredhardtoreach.ThishascomfortedpolicymakersadvocatingfortradebarriersandadditionalincentivesforlocalmanufacturingespeciallyintheUSAandIndia,andavividdebateintheEU.9Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets1.3FocusontheTopMarketsin2023TheChinesemarketgrewataveryhighrateofover125%andinstalledaminimumof235GW(officialChinareporting)uptoapossible277GWin2023(upfrom106GWin2022and55GWin2021).With55.8GWofannualinstallations,theEuropeanUnionrankedsecond,followedbytheUSAat33.2GW(backtostrongvolumesafteraslower2022)followedbyIndiawithaslightlycontractedmarketof16.6GW.VerystronggrowthinGermanywith14.3GWsawthecountryleapfrogastillstrongBrazil(11.9GW)intofourthplace.Note:TheEuropeanUniongrouped27Europeancountriesin2023,outofwhichGermany,Spain,Poland,ItalyandtheNetherlandsalsoappearintheTopTen,eitherfortheannualinstalledcapacityorthecumulativeinstalledcapacity.TheEuropeanCommissionisamemberofIEA-PVPSthroughitsJointResearchCentre(EU-JRC).*OfficialChinareportingcapacity,belowIEA-PVPSpreliminaryassessmentof277GW/704GWSource:IEAPVPSToreachtheTopTenfornewcapacityin2023,countriesneededtoinstallatleast4.2GWofPVsystems(comparedto3.9GWin2022andjust1.5GWbackin2018).AustraliagavewaytotheNetherlandsasitsmarketdecreasedforthe2ndconsecutiveyear.WithintheTopTenoftotalcumulativeinstalledcapacitiesthereisanincreasedgapof44GWbetweenfifthplacedGermanyandsixthplacedSpain,asthebottomofthetablefailedtomeetthedynamicmarketsofthosehigherupthetable.Japan’sstablemarketisnotsufficienttokeepitsplaceasitisovertakenbyIndia.1.4MarketSegmentationBothrooftopandutilityscalesegmentsgrewin2023.Marketsegmentswerereasonablybalanced,withapproximately45%ofnewcapacityonrooftops–althoughdatauncertaintyinconvertingutilityscaleACcapacitytoDCcapacityinChinaissuchthatthisdistributionisuncertain.Theshareoftherooftopsegmenthadbeengrowingcontinuouslysince2018asmarketsopeninnewcountries,decreasingcostsandhigherelectricityconsumptioncostsmakeitmoreaccessibleforresidentialandcommercialinvestors,withbothdominantmarketsharesandnotablevolumes(>4GW)inGermany,Brazil,PolandandItaly,andtoalesserextent(>2.5GW)intheNetherlands,AustraliaandFrance.InothercountriessuchastheUSA,IndiaandSpain,utilityscalesystemscovermorethan65%ofthelocalmarket.Chinahasfluctuatedyearly,andthisyear’smajorityofutilityscalesystemsmaynotberepeatednextyear.Onbothsegmentsnewapplicationsareingrowth;fromBIPVintherooftopsegmenttoutilityscalefloatingPV.10Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsStillmarginalbutgrowing,agrivoltaicprojectsandBIPVareasyethardtoquantify,asareVIPV/VAPV5volumes(PVintegratedinvehicles),althoughtheyareexpectedtodevelopwellinthecomingyears.Technologicalevolutions,suchasbifacialPVorthenewmoduletechnologieswillalsoimpactthedevelopmentofthesenewmarketsegments.GWp500FIGURE4:SEGMENTATIONOFPVINSTALLATION2013-202345040035030025020015010050020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023ROOFTOPUTILITYSCALEAC/DCratiouncertaintyinutilityscaleSource:IEAPVPS,BecquerelInstitute2CUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYINTHEWORLDIn2023theglobalcumulativeinstalledcapacityreached1.6TW,reachinganestimated1581GWto1624GW,asshowninFigure5.Mostremarkably,thenewannualcapacityinstalledinChinain2023(235GW-OfficialChinareportingto277GW–

IEA-PVPSpreliminaryassessment)isjustoverofthetotalcumulativeinstalledcapacityinEurope(314.7GW,ofwhich268.1GWisintheEU).Cumulativecapacityhitthetopofthe20%to35%growthraterangeofthepast10years.AsindicatedinTable1,thetop5countriesfromChinadowntoIndiaandthenGermany(81.6GW)haveatleast40GWmorethanthenextcountriesandhavewidenedthegapbymorethan10GWsincelastyear.Thenextgroupofcountrieswithbetween25GWand40GW,foundacrossmostcontinents,isonlyjusttrailedbyFrance(23.6GW)andtheNetherlands(22.4GW).5BIPV–

BuildingIntegratedPV;VIPV–

VehicleIntegratedPV;VAPV-VehicleAddedPV11Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsGWpFIGURE5:EVOLUTIONOFCUMULATIVEPVINSTALLATIONS2000175015001250100075050025001624158111839477746285154103072301801401027223

4034681520042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023BrazilIndiaOthercountriesOtherIEAPVPScountriesJapanEuropeanUnionChinaUSAIEA-PVPSpreliminaryassessmentSource:IEAPVPS2.1EvolutionofRegionalShareofPVInstallationsThemajorityshareofglobalPVinstallationsisheldbyAsia-Pacificandhasonceagainincreasedin2023,risingtoover60%,withacumulativeinstalledcapacityofatleast947GW.AcloserlookshowsusthatitisChina,notAsia-Pacificasawhole,thathasincreaseditsshare(seeFigures6Aand6B).ExcludingChina,thethreeothermajorregionalmarkets–

theremainderofAsia-Pacific,EuropeandtheAmericas-areallroughlyequivalent,thefirsttwoholding19%andthelatter15%ofglobalcumulativePVinstallations.TherestofAsia-Pacific’smarketsweregenerallyinslightcontractionorsteadyover2023comparedto2022.TheJapanesemarkethasvariedfrom6GWto10GWayearoverthepast10yearsnowandseemstobefindingstabilityatabout6.3GW,reachingacumulativecapacity91.4GW.Withasimilarcumulativecapacity,Indiahashadamorevolatilemarket,rangingfromunder1GWin2014upto2022’s

18.6GW.Hurdlestosteadygrowthincludeadministrativeprocedures,gridaccessandfinancing.Withveryambitiouslocalmanufacturinganddevelopmenttargets,Indiaisstillexpectedtotakealeadingrole.TheAustralianmarketwasapromisinglysteady4GWto5GWfor5yearsbuthasdroppedbelow4GWthisyear,whilstinthesameperiodKoreahasbouncedbetween2.6GWand5GW,settlingatjustover3GWthepast2years.Thesetwocountriesbothhaveacumulativecapacityofbetween25GWand35GW.TheothernationalmarketswithanysignificantcapacityinAsia-PacificareVietnam(whosefragilegridstoppednewcapacityaftertwomulti-GWyearsin2019/2020)andTaiwanwhomayhit3GWin2023.Whilsteachcountryhascitedspecificreasonsforthesluggishmarkets,amorefundamentalunderlyingproblemremains.AcrosstheEuropeanregionalmarkettherewasgrowthinannualcapacityinnearlyallmarkets,ridingontheincreasedcompetitivenessofPVwithrespecttohighelectricitypricesfromtheconsequencesoftheUkraineconflict,butalsourgentpoliticalmandatestoincrease12Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsenergyautonomyandrenewableenergyproduction.ThemaincontributorisstillGermany(adding14.3GWtoreach81.6GW),ridingonstrongpoliticalmotivation,followedbytwocountrieswithover30GWcumulativecapacity:Spain(downfrom8.5GWin2022to7.7GWin2023)andItaly(over100%growthto5.3GWnewcapacity).ThesearefollowedbyFranceat23.6GW(+3.9GW),theNetherlandsat22.4GW(+4.2GW)andPolandcatchingup(+6GWto18.5GW).NearlyadozenotherEuropeancountriesinstalledmorethan1GWin2023.TheAmericasregionalmarketislargelydrivenbytheUSA,returningtovolumessimilarto2021afteraslower2022byadding33.2GWtoreach169.5GWorover70%ofcumulativecapacityintheregion.However,thedynamicgrowthinBrazilhascontinued,adding11.9GW(upfrom9.9GWin2022)toreach35.5GW.Chile(up1.3GWto9.2GWcumulativecapacity)mayreachdoubledigitsin2024,whilstCanada(7.3GWcumulativecapacity)couldinthenext3years.FIGURE6A:EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALPVINSTALLATIONSGWp16001400120010008006004002000EuropeAfrica&MiddleEastRestoftheworldTheAmericasAsiaPacificexcludingChinaChina**OfficialChinareportingSource:IEAPVPS13Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarketsFIGURE6B:EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALSHAREOFGLOBALMARKET90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023EuropeAfrica&MiddleEastRestoftheworldChina*TheAmericasAsiaPacificexcludingChina*OfficialChinareportingSource:IEAPVPSIntheMiddleEastandAfrica,SouthAfricainstallednearly3GWandwasresponsibleforthebulkofnewcapacity,withlessthananestimated700MWelsewhere.Thisisdespiteasignificantvolumeofprojectsannouncedfromthepastyears–

theabilityoftheregiontoseeprojectsintoconstructionisstilltobeproven.Forexample,Egypthadjustover300MWofnewcapacityin2023,with700MWinconstructionbutanannouncedpipelineofover11GW.14Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–

2024SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets2.2LimitsofReportingConventionsAsthePVmarketgrowsconstantly,reportingofPVinstallationsisbecomingmorecomplex.IEAPVPShasdecidedtocountallPVinstallations,bothgrid-connectedandoff-grid,FIGURE7:COMMISSIONEDANDSTOCKEDVOLUMES2023whennumbersarereported,andtoestimatetheremainingpartonunreportedinstallations.Forcountrieswithhistoricallysignificantcapacityandgoodreporting,aslowyetgrowinggapbetweenshipped/importedcapacityandinstalledcapacitycanbeattributedtoseveralfactorsincludingconversionfactorsfromACtoDC,repoweringanddecommissioning.ConvertingACtoDCpower,particularlyondatasetscoveringawidegeographicalarea,issubjecttoaratherlargeuncertainty,asisdemonstratedwithChinadata–OfficialreportingofUtilityscaleisinACpower,Chinaexpertsusea1.15conversionratiowhilstothersuseupto1.5.Withalackofharddataonexistingsystems,theseratiosarebuiltonlimitedsurveysandstandarddimensioningpractices.6005004003002001000Totalminimum584GWStock:138GWMaximumInstalled446GWExpertguessandAC/DCratiouncertainty:84GWApproximativesource:0.8GWPrimary&trustedsecondarysources:361GWTheextremelyfastpaceddevelopmentofmicrosystems(plug&playsystemswithonlyafewmodules),whilstnotsignificantinoverallvolumesissymptomaticofthedevelopmentofunreportedsystemsreachingthemarketandsometimesbeinginvisibletodistributionsystemoperatorsanddatacollection.Source:IEA-PVPSOthermarketevolutionssuchasoff-gridapplicationsaredifficulttotrackeveninmembercountries,andsignificantgrowthininstallationsinthirdcountrieswithoutarobustreportingsystemisalsoalikelysourceofunderreporting.Inlightofthis,reportingheretakesintoaccountreportedandexpertestimatesofnewcommissionedcapacityaswellasprobableunreportedvol